Monday, 16 February 2015

Shalom again, Barack Phone call, the sequel.

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2015/01/shalom-barack-150128054346716.html

Netanyahu's decision may have shaken the balance of US-Israel ties [REUTERS]

About the Author

Marwan Bishara

Marwan Bishara is the senior political analyst at Al Jazeera.
BO: Shalom Bibi, I didn't expect your call so soon…
BN: We hung up on a bitter note and I was hoping we could find a middle ground.
BO: I can't see a middle ground here. Besides you have an election coming up and we cannot seem to be siding with any one side.
BN: Mr President, I am preoccupied by Iran's nuclear programme, not the elections. I am driven by the solemn commitment to Israel's security, not politics.
BO: You don't say! Unless you're planning to leak our chat, I can't see the point of this lofty talk; we're all political animals dear Bibi … no shame in that, I just prefer if you did it in your own backyard.
BN: You must believe me. I won't say it if I didn't mean it.
BO: Look, I am not questioning your sincerity, I am questioning your judgement; coming two weeks before the elections can only be perceived as exploiting the nuclear issue for narrow personal or political end. Frankly, it stinks of opportunism.
BN: Barack, I am calling out of consideration not desperation. What makes you think I am worried about the elections or the visit? I can easily make the speech and get re-elected prime minister come spring time.
BO: Judging from our diplomatic cables and the media reports, you are becoming ever more isolated, no one supports your visit, not even your friends in the Democratic Party, as well as your advisers and lobbyists, all are asking you to back off and cancel the visit.  Your gamble has clearly backfired.
BO: Judging from our diplomatic cables and the media reports, you are becoming ever more isolated, no one supports your visit, not even your friends in the Democratic Party, as well as your advisers and lobbyists, all are asking you to back off and cancel the visit. Your gamble has clearly backfired.
BN: Perhaps you and your people pay too much attention to the liberal press. I don't exactly care for the NY Times and Haaretz; their readerships aren't exactly my constituency.
BO: Benjamin, I read the signs, and yours are bleak. You've bitten off more than you can chew. If you're seeking my help to avoid choking on your own ambition, I'll happily oblige, but only if you call off the speech. That's unless you've had a sudden change of heart and decided to support our diplomacy.
BN: I couldn't and wouldn't call it off. That would be a major slap to Congress and its leadership. There should be another way out that doesn't undermine the White House or Congress and I am hoping we can explore it together.
BO: There's no way out. The only option that I can think of - one that was suggested by one of your lobbyists - is for you to postpone until well after the elections. Since you are sure of winning, I suggest you come late spring or summer. And perhaps we could also meet then.
BN: You want me to come speak to both Houses of Congress about the threat of Iran's nuclear programme after you've signed a deal with President Rouhani! Who's disingenuous now!
BO: Either way you won't get your way, Mr Prime Minister. Senator Robert Menendez and nine other Democratic senators have already sent me a letter to say they had withdrawn their support for another sanctions bill until the diplomatic process ran its course. We are betting on a peaceful resolution to the Iranian issue.  
BN: I am sure this will not stop the Republicans from going ahead with a bill. Meanwhile, I am only trying to mitigate a potential crisis and see whether we could arrive at a compromise of sort.
BO: No compromises here. I am the Commander in Chief and I've decided to pursue a diplomatic solution to the Iranian nuclear programme. The Senate Republicans might be able to pass a bill with a thin majority, but they won't be able to override my veto power. You are on the wrong side of the issue; worse, you're on the wrong side of history.
BN: Oh, history, right. Mr President many before have bet on peace and diplomacy in the Middle East, but they failed once and again. This region and its people only understand the alphabet of intimidation and the language of force. You'll fail like any of your predecessors who reckoned they could reason with these people.
BO: These people, as you call them, are your neighbours, not ours. You might have the illusions of being western, but you are a Middle Eastern nation whether you like it or not. And, by the way, "these people" say the same about you.
BN: Israel is a country of principle; a country that's fighting for its survival. We would never compromise on that. 

Part One: Hello Bibi, Shalom Barack

BO: Your neighbours and much of the world reckon that Israel is an occupier. That it's Israel that only understands the language of force. That you've withdrawn from the Sinai, Lebanon and Gaza only under the threat of force and war.
BN: Be that as it may, look where these withdrawals have gotten us. They certainly didn't bring us security or normalisation of relations. The Arabs and Muslims are hateful and won't make peace with us. Our only protection is our military.
BO: And the United States?
BN: Well, yes.
BO: You will never feel safe or even survive in the long run until you become part and parcel of the region. You need to make peace and normalise relations with your neighbours. Agreements are always better than war.
BN: We are a democratic Jewish State in a sea of chaotic Muslim countries. And the only way we can endure it is by maintaining military superiority and total control over the autonomous Palestinian areas. History shows that the Palestinians cannot be trusted. We've tried to work with them but they're not amenable to coexistence.
BO: You want to maintain control over them and treat them as inferior and still expect them to acquiesce to your dictates! I never said it to you in the past, and I won't say it publicly even when some have speculated about my thoughts, but I think your approach towards your Arab and Muslim neighbours reminds me of the European approach to Africa, just as your treatment of the Palestinians reminds me of America's past treatment of black people. It's racist if you don't mind me saying so. 
BN: Sorry Mr President but I won't allow you to say that about us, we the Jewish people have suffered from racism more than any other people and won't tolerate such criticism. We've already told Mr Kerry how much we opposed his reference to Apartheid in the absence of peace.
BO: You forget whom you're talking to. Let's not try and compare past suffering. The challenge here is not to compete over victimhood. Rather the challenge is to draw the right conclusion; to stand for justice and equality, or to project bigotry and or justify xenophobia and racism.
BN: Thank you for another sermon, but that's hardly the issue here. It certainly wouldn't mitigate the Iranian threat. If you care so much for the Palestinians why did you leave them at our mercy, we, quote, the occupier, unquote? Why would you barter their rights for our silence on Iran?
BO: Listen, eventually you must either separate from the Palestinians into two states, or you'll have to live with them in one state, as in South Africa. Remember, Iran represents no threat, nuclear or any other, if you and the Palestinians live TOGETHER in peace and harmony. Otherwise, it's Israel that will be isolated; it's Israel that will pay the price of choosing belligerence over diplomacy.
BN: I need to go Mr President, as I am getting reports that Hezbollah has just attacked our military on the northern borders.
BO: We shall condemn it.
BN: I rest my case.
BO: So do I...
Marwan Bishara is the senior political analyst at Al Jazeera.
The views expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera's editorial policy.

Thursday, 12 February 2015

A ‘meritocratic’ state for Africa



The purpose of this think piece emanated from the deep conviction that an African renaissance can only happen with the development of each and every African and the collective skills, aptitudes and visions of our citizens. It is indeed timely and apposite to discourse on the subject of empowered professional self development. The piece hence seeks to explore the changing nature of international debates about empowered self-development and its implications for human empowerment to achieve our declared goals for the next five years and the MDGs.
        Do human qualities spur development? Yes they do; but… On the global arena, a consensus has emerged that a concerted massive action over a sustained period, on the development and utilization of a pool of critical human qualities at all levels and spectrum of society would provide the foundation and engine for gaining a respectable and beneficial place within the process of self-development and self-management. A disciplined, healthy, nourished, and motivated labour force is required to produce and distribute the goods and services needed for sustained human development. Leadership teams that are committed and willing with positive attitude to facilitate the process of opening up greater opportunities for every citizen are needed.
        With the groundswell of political consciousness and opportunities for political change that has emerged in Africa, the discourse on cultural democracy can and must take place to ensure its ultimate sustainability. It is also a challenge, because, for a third time in a generation, we are faced with the daunting task of building up new and equitable relationships; and hence the litmus test to our ability to participate in reshaping the future of a nation. It is also an opportunity for Africans to marshal their experience and knowledge to play a constructive role in national development.       As the march of meritocracy has now slowed to a crawl in Africa, and, on some fronts, has even turned into a retreat, the real threat to merit-based career development comes not only from within the government and the private sector but from society at large. The biggest risk to our development is the erosion of the competitive principle.
        Which world are we living in? Amid the turbulence of the divisions that marked the debate in the Cold War period, which was dominated by the great ideological differences between liberal-capitalism and socialism, and in which the contest was seen to lie in the competing claims of the primacy of civil and political rights on the one hand and economic and social rights on the other. At the heart of the controversy in self development was the role of the market in the organization of economy and the well known critique by Marx that established a better framework for rights in which economic and social rights were ensured to all people, enabling them to live a life of dignity and hence nations analyzed rights in class terms. Leaders hovered uneasily between these opposed views, reluctant to disengage from the rhetoric, which had been invoked extensively in the seventies, but also conscious of the difficulties of establishing political authority, especially in multiethnic societies, and increasingly driven to restrictions of rights. The end of the Cold War changed dramatically the context for the discourse of self-development widely represented as the victory of human right and Western (Mainly American) democracy. The discourse achieved a high salience. The west defined its mission the extension of rights and democracy to other parts of the world... followed by its dominance of Western culture. Soon Coca Cola and Hollywood became the icons of the new ‘cultural revolution’.
On our end, throughout African history, activists have worked in socially broad-based movements to challenge social injustice in oppressive eras, regimes, and faith aristocracies that challenged the very idealism of humanness and human dignity. The ethic that has brought about this change has been manifested in more ways than one; by emancipation-spirituality that inspired widespread grassroots renewal all over the world. The contemporaneous forms of inspirited social-change masterpieces that it brought deserve considerable attention in any discourse of human development, distribution of wealth and well-being; especially when it comes to building robust communities of faith, resilience, and ethics.
        Good enough never is - do a little more: No matter how common the task, it should be done uncommonly well. Such a choice is always wise; after all, the path of excellence is never crowded and is a highway that leads to the top. Excellence is not a destination we reach, but is an unending process of constant improvement. What better way to live than by growing better each day? Those who pursue excellence are not in direct competition with others, for they measure themselves against their own accomplishments. The real contest is always between what you’ve done and what you’re capable of doing. You measure yourself against yourself and nobody else." Excellence is deliberate, not an accident that we stumble upon. It is about asking of ourselves more than others do; it is about harbouring thoughts of excellence in our hearts and minds. As long as we aim for a more ideal self, success will naturally follow. Moreover, the good news is excellence is within the grasp of all, for it is merely about doing our best at every moment. It is not about perfection, which is an illusive goal, but about becoming what we are capable of being. Those who stand by the sidelines and watch others succeed, know what is necessary, but are unwilling to devote the time and effort to bettering themselves. So, each of us have to make a decision.
        To do the right thing, at the right time, in the right way; to do some things better than they were ever done before; to eliminate errors; to know both sides of the question; to be courteous; to be an example; to work for the love of work; to anticipate requirements; to develop resources; to recognize no impediments; to master circumstances; to act from reason rather than rule; to be satisfied with nothing short of perfection. Those who are successful in their quest for excellence simply do what they do better and do more of it. They go about life always alert for better ways of doing things. Every endeavour they engage in is imprinted with their mark of excellence. They understand that if you do a job quickly, people will forget about it. But if you do it well, people will remember. Founder of IBM, Thomas J. Watson (1874 ~ 1956), in his work the Path to Excellence said that: Care more than others think is wise. Risk more than others think is safe. Dream more than others think is practical. Expect more than others think is possible. Strive more than others think is worthwhile. Do more than others think is necessary. Be more than others think is sufficient.
        Greatness is not power, wealth, fame, beauty, or talent. Greatness is not found in possessions, power, position, or prestige. It is discovered in goodness, humility, service, and character. (William Arthur) In other words, it is becoming someone you admire. Not because of egoism, but because of the innate desire to be and do one’s best. This is the single most powerful investment nations can ever make in life - investment in human ability to deal with life and to contribute. People are the instruments of their own performance, and to be effective, they need to recognize the importance of taking time regularly to sharpen the saw. The more proactive you are, the more effectively you can exercise personal leadership and management in your life. The more effective you manage your life, the more renewing activities you can do. The more you seek first to understand, the more effectively you can go for synergetic win-win solutions. The more you improve in any of the habits that lead to independence, the more effective you will be in interdependent situations. Renewal is the process of rejuvenating ones character, demeanour, and habits.

        The main reason for America's success lies in the organisation of its educational system asserts The Economist. “This is something other countries can copy... but they will not find it easy—particularly if they are developing countries that are bent on state-driven modernisation. America does not have a central plan for its universities….it does not treat its academics as civil servants. Instead, universities have a wide range of patrons, from state governments to religious bodies, from fee-paying students to generous philanthropists. The academic landscape has been shaped by rich benefactors such as Ezra Cornell, Cornelius Vanderbilt, Johns Hopkins, and John D. Rockefeller”. This is something that can be emulated by our private sector however nascent or underdeveloped.

        Meritocratic governments (such as the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, China, and India), South Korea, Ghana, Tunisia, Singapore, Malaysia to name a few) and the corporate world stress talent, formal education, and competence, rather than existing social differences. Meritocracy is now often used to describe a type of society where wealth, income, and social status are assigned through competition, on the assumption that the winners do indeed deserve their resulting advantage. As a result, the word has acquired a connotation of Social Darwinism, used to describe aggressively competitive societies, with large inequality of income and wealth, and sharply contrasted with egalitarian societies. Social Darwinism is a form of contemporary socio-biology is natural selection applied to human social institutions; whose proponents often used the theory to justify social inequality as being meritocratic. Others used it to justify racism and imperialism and at its most extreme, it appears to anticipate eugenics and the race doctrines of the Nazis.
        In a plural soiety where power is theoretically in the hands of the elected representatives, meritocratic elements include the use of expert consultants to help formulate policies, and a meritocratic civil service to implement them. The perennial problem in advocating meritocracy is defining exactly what one means by merit. Hence, in devising a meritocratic state for Africa, we need to look at several of the state functions that must as a necessity be accomplished by well-developed teams and change agents. On the political governance arena, it is important that legislators understand their role with mechanisms whereby members of the legislature have sufficient access to research services, libraries, information and technical resources and staff to enable them to make informed decisions and not generally acquiesces to executive demands.
        In analyzing the Executive Arm’s ability to perform, the first question is whether there is a civil service, with appointments based on merit that has inter alia minimum entry requirements such as the Indian Civil Service and where large sectors of the population are not automatically guaranteed a job in the public sector, although it is important to tackle the unemployment challenge through a vibrant private sector. This is an important point of departure to evolve a clear system of promotion based on merit, and with checks and balances to ensure that this is implemented. This also enables the state to ensure that specific functions are clearly described, and chains of command clearly delineated and avoid widespread instances of promotion and appointment based on patronage.     Equally relevant arena for consideration is the compensation for civil servants i.e., the salary paid to civil servants is similar or even better to that which they could earn in other sectors (to prevent brain drain from the nation and civil service) and are there are benefits and access to government structures that afford significant attractions to join the civil service? Coupled with good remuneration and post-adjustment packages, the existence of alternative employment opportunities for civil servants can render the civil service a preferred profession. The necessity for a publicly acknowledged system of appointment, that encourages most senior positions to be held by career civil servants; has been time and again tested in those developing economies and emerging markets such as the The CIVETS (Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey and South Africa) that have successfully transited out of penury.
        Such a system of appointment based on merit will indubitably ensure that budgetary policies and priorities are set correctly. It also provides the incentives for government agencies and state owned businesses to develop more cost efficient ways of doing business and enhances decentralisation of resource generation and allocation. Thus under such a capacitated state, local authorities are able to collect revenue and programme it for human development and human security. It also means that local authorities develop their own budgetary priorities and programmes. The most significant of all is the existence of a favourable environment for private enterprise; with regulations and administrative procedures, which need to be followed, that facilitate private ownership of property. In the arena of participation and communication, it is significant that there is a range of well-developed countervailing intermediary civic organisations such as policy or political and economic think tanks and professional associations that function freely and openly, serving a variety of sectors of the population and can peacefully function as pressure groups, lobbying for specific interests.
The three essential capabilities for human development are for people to lead long and healthy lives, to be knowledgeable and to have access to the resources needed for a decent standard of living. If these basic capabilities are not achieved, many choices are simply not available and many opportunities remain inaccessible. Nevertheless, the realm of human development goes further: essential areas of choice that are highly valued by people, range from political, economic and social opportunities for being creative and productive to enjoying self-respect, empowerment and a sense of belonging to a community.
Thus, the achievement of the goals propounded and enacted in the five year development plans by the African legislatures is in many measures a decision that will launch growth trajectories into a new era of human development (and as much as I refrain to use the phrase – ‘poverty reduction’). Hence, a nation needs a work force with a sense of purpose, work ethic, vision, integrity, direction has to do with creating conditions for the existence of the broadest possible range of dialogue, opinions, and human sentiments to achieve the goals enshrined the vision of African legislature. Developing and maintaining such a work force implies acquiescing to a system of economic and social governance based on rule by ability (merit) rather than by quotas, connections, wealth, race, or other determinants of social position.

A Ravenous Dragon’s Unrelenting push into the ‘Dark’ Continent



With the spectacular Olympic Games held recently and the collapse of the WTO talks, due to its defiance of Western positions, China has projected itself into the world stage for a second time; since it acquired the status of a nuclear power. It influence on Africa has also been steadily growing. Sino-African trade has increased rapidly, rising to a towering $75 billion last year. Its economic might and tolerance of abuses by African polities has contributed to Beijing’s highly successful diplomatic move in Africa.
Initial efforts by the African leaders to develop and integrate Africa included the Lagos Plan of Action and the subsequent Final Act of Lagos and NEPAD - the most comprehensive programme yet adopted. Others are the outcomes of the Monrovia Symposium, Arusha, Khartoum, and Addis Ababa Declarations, African Common Market, Cairo Agenda for Action, Abuja Treaty, and Abuja Declaration… Yet, like many other efforts, these have not yielded the desired results.
Such a declaration notwithstanding, WTO came into force with new set agreements, negotiated, for the most part, without the effective African participation. The IMF, the World Bank and the WTO have evolved a common understanding and strategy with regards to the movement and management of international financing between them within the framework of the Washington Consensus. This is true particularly with those related to trade liberalisation and FDI that have found their way into the WTO articles of association. The complexities involved and the pains that await African countries are reflected by the increasing numbers of disputes referred to WTO; that included allegations of contravention of the national treatment provision of GATT - Article III.
“Threats, deception and manipulation are the underhand negotiating tactics used by rich countries such as in the current round of global trade talks”, warns ActionAid in a new report, 'The Doha Deception Round: How the US and EU cheated developing
countries'.  “Power politics, exclusive meetings, diplomatic arm-twisting and 'take-it-or-leave-it' ultimatums would have lead to a final trade deal that could have a devastating impact on millions of people worldwide. Hardball tactics are undermining the very goal of the current trade talks which is supposed to have the interests of poverty and development”.
Hence, not surprisingly,  China has become one of the voices for the poor nations and Africa's most audacious financier, “providing almost $12 billion in aid and soft loan, and buying over a tenth of SSA's exports (over $25 billion) and the China ExIm bank has facilitated loans to the tune $10 billion to African governments, albeit, on more commercial terms. While well managed economies have earned IMF’s blessing to take-on more debt even on commercial terms, badly managed economies have moved on to China, which is prepared to ignore such conditionalities. China bestowed $800m to Sudan in 2005 and a similar amount last year—as Sudan queued up to have its multilateral debts written off” (The Economist, May 17th 2007). When African nations went into internal political and military crises, China saw this as an opportunity to expand its influence. New aid grants soon rolled in, followed by bank credits for Chinese companies, which have today become a dominant force, building highways and bridges, power stations, mobile-phone networks, and exploring for oil”…(The Wall Street Journal, March 30th, 2005). In nations such as Sudan, Zimbabwe, Nigeria, Angola, and DRC, China's tolerance for sleaze and political risk has met with warm reception; even as we witness that the plundering of public wealth directly hampers development and undermines trust in democracy and its institutions.
Indeed, 2006 was billed as "The Year of Africa" in China that culminated with the China-Africa summit focussed on securing Africa’s natural resources for its rapidly growing economy, market expansion for its cheap goods and gaining international political legitimacy with almost all 53 African countries supporting Chinese positions on literally all issues in the UN General Assembly.
In an age when globalisation has been heralded to have ushered in a time of unprecedented global wealth and extraordinary opportunities for human kind; largely stemming from the triumph of the market over the ideologically-loaded command economies; an important dimension that features prominently in the Africa discourse is the relative contribution and weight of competent leadership for developing negotiating instruments for partaking in it. After all trade-not-aid has become the slogan of African leaders. Beijing has come up with the answers and has moved in rapidly with the necessary resources for business and infrastructure development that have so far been the subject of lengthy negotiations, many times at the cost of project redundancy, and which hitherto marked African institutions relations with global funders. Beginning with the construction of the Tanzam rail link that opened up vast markets for Zambia’s produce and Tanzania’s services, China has indeed speeded up to fill a crucial gap.
Nonetheless, there is a mounting backlash from civil society and international watchdog agencies to some of such business practices. For instance, China is trying to balance its non-interference policy in Sudan and ensuring the stability of its investments. As long as its aid and loan packages can help African governments to get round some of the pressure from the Breton Woods institutions, Beijing can ensure its African leverage to grow rapidly and on its own terms.
With Chinese dominance of the African economic and political landscape, powerful forces and trends of chaos and order mark this moment of China-driven globalism; dissolving old boundaries in a network of flows of trade. Its style of ‘market liberalisation’ is creating one vast global marketplace in Africa. Considering the drive, characteristics and dynamics of the Chinese economic assault, the fundamental question facing African nations is not whether they have options for participating in a process of balanced benefits in the spirit of true globalism; it is indeed how they wish to integrate into the process as partners and actors and at which speed. Beyond GDP growth, performance anatomy is perhaps the most subtle trait of all economies - the interactions between leadership and strategy, innovation and technology, and human quality development and meritocracy that are critical to defining a high-performance market–driven development; that is the solitary course known to mankind to lift nations out of penury.

Can Ethiopia’s Resource Wealth Contribute to its Growth and Transformation?

http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2015/01/26/ethiopia-extractives-mining-strategic-assessment-mineral-sector

Ethiopia’s resource wealth can be a key driver of the country’s growth
A recent study of the mineral industry developed by the World Bank Group (WBG) and other development partners offers recommendations to help the country develop its unrealized geological potential
The WBG is supporting the government with technical assistance to help build a competitive, predictable, and responsible strategy, legislative and institutional framework for the Oil, Natural Gas and Mining industry



Famine! Again? An idiosyncratic challenge in the Horn



Once again, famine has began to strike the Greater Horn of Africa with apocalyptic force, with rows of fly-haunted corpses and the skeletal orphans crouched in pain, the nomads and pastoralist desperately scrambling for help. Despondent Somali mothers are abandoning their dying children as they travel to engulf crisis centres in Kenya and Ethiopia. Because there is always a tendency to find a solution that is smart, simple, and immoral to every human problem in Africa, states and their international backers tend to have a linear or at best binary logic and way of thinking that cast scepticism in their collective aptitude that is inadequate to unravel the many complex inter-relationships underlying vulnerability. The article suggests that an international elite made up of public intellectuals that can advance highly qualified research and policy reflection are indispensable elements to continually remodel, expand, renovate, cultivate, and develop sustainable solutions to the Horn’s famine.

Josette Sheeran, executive director of WFP told a conference in Rome in 2011 that a combination of natural disaster and regional conflict was affecting more than 12 million. "We are seeing all the points able to distribute food completely overwhelmed," she said, adding that a camp in Dadaab in Kenya that was built for 90,000 people now housed 400,000. I believe it is the children's famine, because the ones who are the weakest are the children and those are the ones we're seeing are the least likely to make it… we've heard of women making the horrible choice of leaving behind their weaker children to save the stronger ones or having children die in their arms.
UNHCR spokesperson Adrian Edwards at the press briefing, on 16 August 2011, at the Palais des Nations in Geneva said that an assessment of mortality in one of four refugee camps at the Dollo Ado complex in Ethiopia has found that death rates have reached alarming levels among new arrivals. Since the Kobe refugee camp opened in June, an average of 10 children under the age of five have died every day. While malnutrition is the leading cause of the high mortality, suspected measles is compounding the problem. Across all Dollo Ado sites we have seen 150 cases of suspected measles and 11 related deaths.
UNHCR in 2011 claimed that preliminary assessments showed that an estimated 95 percent of the new arrivals were women and children, with the majority in a very poor nutritional and health states. The mission described the overall situation as desperate and called for urgent humanitarian aidparticularly since local Ethiopians, themselves hit hard by the drought, have been sharing their meagre supplies.
Has lessons been learned?
The famines of the past few decades have indeed been a cruel test in Greater Horn of Africa. While the outpouring sympathy and generous response of the international community have been phenomenal, the actions of the firemen of international disasters had brought to light some serious doubts about the ability of such fire fighting interventions to reduce peoples' vulnerability. Today, the crises assume new dimensions as changing production relations, spurred by socio-economic adjustments set the pace of livelihood security. Conflicts, corruption, poverty, and pandemics now threaten the region with a calamity unforeseen even during the Great Famine of the 1980s, so much so that the G8 has made this a basket case for international action as Somalia becomes a new insignia of human bestiality, a failed or collapsed state, to use a nauseating acronym.
When the basic functions of the State are no longer performed, they breed widespread internal conflict, revolutionary and ethnic wars, adverse regime change, genocide, politicides, and de facto or de jure loss of state authority. The consequences have domestic effects in terms of conflict trap, wild arms spending and economic consequences. The neighbourhood effects breed conflict spill over and havens for terrorists. Determinants of potential state failure are material deprivation of citizens: unfulfilled expectations, difficulty of delivering quick results, urban bias, security constraints.
It also has international influences: openness to trade, conflicts in neighbouring countries, large illicit influx of money, corruption, foreign aid footprint. In addition, ‘war lords’ jockeying as states men capture the regime. It is the dilemma of re-building country vs. the state; where alternative delivery mechanisms de-legitimise government, slow the process of genuine institution building, advance an unrealistic reform agenda, and focus on pseudo-democracy façade in response to multiple and varied donor agenda.
Smart, simple, and immoral answers to complex problems
Hence, the demand for some important attitudinal shifts among thinkers and policy makers and the challenges of designing concepts and models that will help harmonise the human dimension in development will never be more acute. Inspired by a new orthodoxy that has evolved with the upsurge of professionalism on such emerging ideals; the eighties had provided a fertile ground for the discourse on the debate that ensued regarding human wellness which, in its own right, is long, trying and, at times, counterproductive. Nevertheless, while many proposals for remedial action have been formulated, real commitment to positive and collaborative processes at inter‑organisational levels has always been limited. Mobilizing the action required has also remained a daunting challenge, as many practical and structural constraints militate against commitment by individual groups to inter‑organisational initiatives nationally and regionally.
Furthermore, the tragedy taking such a heavy toll of life has highlighted fundamental weakness of state five-year development strategies and emasculated actions of donors; that are outpaced by the human emergencies that arise. This has ensued questions about many preconceived notions and new ideas proposed, including efforts that can be made to improve our understanding of human insecurity, to estimate the risks resulting there from, accurately and to make adequate preventive measures ahead of time.
Because there is always a tendency to find a solution that is smart, simple, and immoral to every human problem in Africa, states and their international backers tend to have a linear or at best binary logic and way of thinking that cast scepticism in their collective aptitude that is inadequate to unravel the many complex inter-relationships underlying human vulnerability. It is neither popular nor scientific. Hence, the issue is about the need for collective learning about responses, and the responsibility to those whose suffering provided the basis for that learning which will never be more urgent than it is now. Unfortunately, such lessons, which may be learned through the shocks administered by an uncompromising reality, are rarely translated quickly into personal or organisational memories and the inherent will to change.
The reasons for this are rooted in human inertia, weakness, and self-interest and are equally often the products of a genuine confusion about how to act most effectively in an environment that is growing more complex. Unfortunately, it boils down to Shakespeare dictum, to be or not to be is the question, whether it’s nobler in the mind to suffer the slings and arrows of outrageous misfortune, or to take up arms and by opposing them to end them, to die to sleep the heartache and shocks that the flesh is heir to… It’s a consummation devoutly to be wished for, to die to sleep…
Jacques L. Hamel underpins the Strategy of Subversive Rationalization, emphasising the internalization of the scientific method and rational modes of thinking as well as the assimilation of crucial scientific knowledge, as the epistemological foundation of any kind of modernity; stressing the necessity of revoking conformist, traditionalist or totalizing belief and knowledge systems, worldviews and cultures that stand in the way to essential changes, a project of liberalization, trans-nationalization, systematization and humanization processes. Denials by leaders notwithstanding, it relies on calculative thinking as the most viable civilised horizon of a potentially budding region, whose tortuous march to modernity may necessitate an imaginative strand of thinking and a complementary strategy.
Exultant techno-scientific canons of belief need not lead inevitably to the profligacy industrial cultures. They need not to be a model for an African modernity, which can avoid being exceedingly obsessed, framed or ordered by technology. Humans, knowledge and technology are co-emerging, coevolutive and mutually co-constitutive of each other. Nevertheless, how does this ‘modernisation’ emerge under phantom states in the Horn?
The phantom opera
Daniel L. Byman of the Brookings Institution articulates this as  
Phantom states stoke wars, foster crime, and make weak states even weaker. Leaders of phantom states champion state control of the means and instruments of livelihoods and the right to national self-determination while the countries from which they seek independence stress the need for stable borders. Stuck between these incompatible principles, phantom governments tend to point out uncomfortable precedents and double standards and latch on to foreign patrons. Indeed, most phantoms survive in part because of external support. Even when a phantom state becomes a genuine state, the problems don’t necessarily end there.
Framing the conundrum of famine agents correctly is as significant, if not equally eminent, as unpacking the catch-22 predicaments that render nerveless the considered opinions of the fire fighters in such a situation that lends itself to introspection of the complexity and uncertainty such issue lend themselves to. The orthodox, if not democratic, notion of famine victims demanding accountability from those fire fighters posits the existence of a shared principled-cosmos wherein such accountability is encapsulated in shared values – a paramount dictum of the recent African Union Summit in Addis Ababa on Shared Values.
While the much tooted climate change summits have borne little fruit in terms of immediate action for a starving Horn, international policy dialogue on these timely and apposite issues will legitimately enhance leadership capacity to effect change in stemming the tide of hunger; however constrained by their economic doctrines and ideological leanings they may be. After all, leaders are expected to develop the capacity, through their statements and actions, to shape debate, dialogue and morality, to determine what is environmentally and socially acceptable, culturally sound and politically uplifting. Indeed, policy leadership is a calling that requires intimate knowledge of public policy analysis, formulation, management and strategic plans to implementing them. This is especially important in the region, where the policy imperatives involve trying to change attitudes and behaviour of principalities that are only informed by violent conflicts for many decades.
Notwithstanding the Social Darwinism it might evoke (because, in practice, research on social mobility favours the progeny of those who are already privileged in some way), meritocratic governments stress talent, education and competence, rather than differences in social class, ethnicity or sex.. In a system where power is theoretically in the hands of elected representatives, meritocratic elements include the use of knowledge to formulate policies. Nevertheless, while one of the most compelling forms of passive demonstration of people’s will are free and fair elections, historical evidence suggest that pluralism cannot be nurtured in masqueraded ‘tribal’ elections and the turbulent, under-urbanized societies in much of the Horn.
Indeed, an international elite made up of public intellectuals that can advance highly qualified research and policy reflection are indispensable elements to continually remodel, expand, renovate, cultivate, and develop sustainable solutions to the Horn’s famine. In the interminable faculty of such elite coalitions to innovate and their unquenchable desire to reinvent, developed nations reap the developmental booty of an exceedingly proactive and skilled entrepreneurial leadership… This may be the only remaining option if we opt not to witness a replay of the 1980’s horror of the Great African Famine. Preparedness, prevention and mitigation must all be embedded in entrepreneurial development and in the human security dictum of freedom from fear and freedom from want.
Quo Vadis! The Horn
The central hypothesis in human security development is that the relative strength of political organisations determines the rules of the political game that are installed. It requires a plural set of political organisations which promote and protect rules of peaceful political participation and competition. Together, plural organisations plus rules of accountability ensure control of the state executive. In taking an institutional perspective, we assume that actors in the political system express preferences through organisations and that these organisations vary in strength according to their resource base. A far-reaching agenda of security reform and the significant start that has been made with a succession of AU resolutions including the fact that the Constitutive Act of the AU precludes as a member any state that take's power by unconstitutional means is a necessary milestone, which can be followed by deepening constitutionalism and adopting ever-higher standards for human security. More than any other regions in Africa, the sub-Region needs a workable and coherent peace and security architecture.
In the long term, security is best guaranteed by democratic, accountable and stable states and assertive civil societies, presiding over and driving human development. Nevertheless, the international community has also a duty under the ambit of the 'responsibility to protect'. The concept of the has been unanimously embraced by the UN GA in the UN 60th Anniversary World Summit in September 2005, and reaffirmed subsequently by the Security Council. Unlike many declarations that have preceded it, one can witness the emergence of what can reasonably be described as a brand new international norm that removes the thin veneer of sovereignty from states and a novelty in the conduct of international relations: from ‘non-interference to non-indifference’. This requires

  • Policy and Programme Framework: Policy and Programme Framework defines the stakeholder commitments, strategic coordination of political, policy and programme interventions and partnership framework
  • Partnership: the sub-region's response to human insecurity must be based on a commitment to ensure that solutions to the challenges of security and development arise from an enhanced capacity of individuals, families, communities and institutions to understand the nature of insecurity in own contexts.
  • Strategic coordination of political interventions is required to address it in adequate scope and depth.
  • A Code of Practice will contribute to on‑going efforts by the partnership towards commitment to the use of standard human security management practices and encourage societies and polities to develop a collective capacity for advocacy…