Scenario Planning: Effective gizmo for State-Building Leadership & Public Policy impact Forecast?

Scenario planning as a process of visualizing what future conditions or events are probable, what their consequences or effects would be like, and how to respond to, or benefit from, them. It is a strategic planning method that some organizations use to make flexible long-term plans. It is in large part an adaptation and generalization of classic methods used by military intelligence. The original method was that a group of analysts would generate simulation games for policy makers that combine known facts about the future, such as demographics, geography, military, political, industrial information and mineral reserves, with key driving forces identified by considering social, technical, economic, environmental and political trends and gaming the behavior of opponents.

Public policy is the principled guide to action taken by the administrative executive branches of the state with regard to a class of issues in a manner consistent with law and institutional customs. In general, the foundation is the pertinent national and substantial constitutional law and implementing legislation. Collection of sufficient resources from the economy in an appropriate manner along with allocating and use of these resources efficiently and effectively constitute good financial management. As public administrators of firms and agencies build scenarios, the implications for each uncertainty are extrapolated into the future to project different outcomes, and the combination of those outcomes becomes the basis for scenarios. Properly executed, scenario planning prompts participants to convert abstract hypotheses about uncertainties into narratives about tangible realities.

There are three scenarios of state building: legitimacy and accountability of states through democratic governance by holding elections and constitutional processes, economic liberalization, and strengthening the capacity of states to fulfill core functions of an effective state. Lee Kuan Yew, (Singapore) brought political stability, which together with rule of law, were essential for economic progress, thereby creating an Asian Tiger, meritocratic state, transforming from the third world to the first world in a single generation.http://www.academia.edu/14284465/Scenario_Planning_Effective_gizmo_for_State-Building_Leadership_and_Public_Policy_impact_Forecast