AfCFTA Interview Transcript RL Vol XIII No 419 MMXIX

AfCFTA Interview Transcript

The African Continental Free Trade Area

Lessons from other free trade agreements in other parts of the world, navigating the political and economic differences, poor infrastructure, stability, synchronising AfCFTA with other continental integration schemes

Public Lecture – Respublica Litereria - RL Vol XIII No 419 MMXIX

Costantinos Berhutesfa Costantinos, PhD

Former Chairperson of the AU Anti-Corruption Advisory Board

Professor of Public Policy & Sustainable Institutional Reforms

https://addisababa.academia.edu/CostyCostantinos

Summary

One of the Key Decisions of the 32nd Ordinary Session of the Assembly of the African Union (January 2019) is that it endorsed the recommendations of African Union Ministers of Trade on Template on Tariff Liberalisation which will be used by Member States in preparing the AfCFTA Schedules of Tariff Concessions. The agreement was endorsed on March 21, 2018, by 44 African countries in Kigali, Rwanda. Free trade is an economic practice whereby countries can import and export goods without fear of government intervention. African countries can benefit from free trade by increasing their amount of or access to economic resources. Free trade agreements ensure small nations can obtain the economic resources needed to produce consumer goods or services. Free trade can improve the quality of life for a nation's citizens. Importing from neighbouring countries ensures a constant flow of goods that are readily available for consumption. Better foreign relations is usually an unintended result of free trade. African countries can also use free trade agreements to improve their military strength and their internal infrastructure, as well as to improve politically. African countries can use free trade to improve their production efficiency.

Infrastructure plays a key role in economic growth and poverty reduction. Conversely, the lack of infrastructure affects productivity and raises production and transaction costs, which hinders growth by reducing the competitiveness of businesses and the ability of governments to pursue economic and social development policies. The potential pitfalls are a major potential challenge in harmonising Africa’s heterogeneous politics and economies under one agreement is the wide variation that exists in their levels of development. Other challenges are through political, security, economic and cultural ties, former colonisers maintain a tight stranglehold in Francophone Africa, both to serve their interests and maintain a last bastion of imperial prestige. The complexities of the regional integration, the assumptions that are made on the basis of perceived necessities or demand underlie the question how does African states and the private sector go about to bring that change? Without comprehensive policy-making and preferential treatment for Africa’s most at-risk economies, the AfCFTA could prove to be a force for economic divergence, rather than a force for good. It is therefore important that participating countries build an efficient and participatory institutional architecture to avoid leaving any economies behind.

Key words: African Union, AfCFTA, Free trade, Infrastructure, former colonisers, Francophone
See interview here or https://www.academia.edu/38666167/AfCFTA_Interview_Transcript_RL_Vol_XIII_No_448_MMXIX

The West & the Achaemenid Dynasty RL Vol XIII No 445 MMXIX

The West & the Achaemenid Dynasty

Is Persia’s Test in the Gulf Self-inflicted or a Deliberate Battle Drum by the West & Iran's  Neighbours?

Public Lecture - Respublica Litereria - RL Vol XIII No 445 MMXIX

Costantinos Berhutesfa Costantinos, PhD

Professor of Public Policy & Sustainable Institutional Reforms

https://addisababa.academia.edu/CostyCostantinos

Abstract

Iran has been under pressure from several corners on three issues from the West and the Gulf States. First is the 2015 nuclear deal struck between Iran and six world powers - the US, UK, Russia, France, China, and Germany. This was the signature foreign policy achievement of Barack Obama's presidency. The initial framework lifted crippling economic sanctions on Iran in return for limitations to the country's controversial nuclear energy programme, which international powers feared Iran would use to create a nuclear weapon. President Trump dealt a blow to the Iran nuclear deal as he announced that he would not certify that Iran is in compliance with the agreement. While the unravelling of the deal is neither automatic nor certain, the announcement will have clear implications for the agreement – and for U.S. diplomacy. Secondly, Yemen, one of the Arab world's poorest countries, has been devastated by a war between forces loyal to the government and those allied to the Houthi rebel movement, who are allegedly supported by Iran, and the Saudi-led bombings. Thirdly, its relations with Qatar has led a blockade by the GCC to demand that Qatar would have to align itself with other Arabs and the Gulf, militarily, politically, socially and economically, as well as in financial matters.

This has grave implications for world peace and security that, added to the North Korean weapons experiment, may led to a broader carnage with the use of nuclear arsenal. The need for the fundamental change on how the global community deals with the internecine crises must change. In spite of the emergence of think tanks that would set the stage for the paradigmatic development of internal models of growth and human welfare, to every human problem, states always come with a solution that is smart, simple and immoral, a linear way of thinking that is inadequate to unravel the many complex inter-relationships underlying and religious fanaticism and terrorism. It enters Gulf politics and society in relatively abstract and plain form, yet pundits expect it to land itself to the immediate and vital polity's socio-political experience. It suggests itself, and seems within reach, only to elude and appears readily practicable only to resist realisation.

Key words: Iran, Nuclear Deal, JCPOA, GCC, Yemen, Saudi, Qatar,

See paper here or  https://www.academia.edu/38563598/The_West_and_the_Achaemenid_Dynasty_RL_Vol_XIII_No_445_MMXIX.pdf

The Middle East would be better off today if Gadhafi and Saddam Hussein, the deposed leader of Iraq who was executed for crimes against humanity three years after a U.S.-led coalition invaded the country at the start of the Iraq War, were still in power (President Trump - Meet the Press, NBC’s Chuck Todd, 4 Oct 2015)

Iran is now the dominant Islamic power in the Middle East, and on the road to nuclear weapons. Hillary Clinton's support for violent regime change in Syria has thrown the country into one of the bloodiest civil wars anyone has ever seen - while giving ISIS a launching pad for terrorism against the West. Donald Trump

A Global Re-ordering trains its Trajectories on the Horn of Africa RL Vol XIII No 405 MMXIX

A New Global Re-ordering trains its 

Strategic Trajectories on the Horn of Africa

China, US, EU, the Gulf, Non-State actors

Public Lecture – Respublica Litereria - RL Vol XIII No 405 MMXIX

Costantinos Berhutesfa Costantinos, PhD

Professor of Public Policy & Sustainable Institutional Reforms

https://addisababa.academia.edu/CostyCostantinos

Abstract

The current scramble for the Horn of Africa reminiscent of the of 19th-century colonial Europe. Today, while Chinese foray into the continent is major news for the West, the Horn of Africa has become the target of martial show off by many nations. What is the relevance of the Gulf incursion into the Horn? Why are major powers suddenly interested in the Red Sea arena? Piracy in Somalia has been a threat to international shipping since the second phase of the civil war in Somalia in the early 21st century. Since 2005, many international organisations have expressed concern over the rise in acts of piracy. Piracy impeded the delivery of shipments and increased shipping expenses, costing an estimated $6.6 to $6.9 billion a year in global trade in 2011. The military response to pirate attacks has brought about a rare show of unity by countries that are either openly hostile to each other, or at least wary of cooperation, military or otherwise. On the other hand, Yemen, which was for centuries the centre of civilisation and wealth on the Arabian Peninsula, is in a major conflict. Some speculate that the conflict is a proxy geopolitical war between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Nonetheless, the Houthis fighting the government and that have tried a number of non-violent approaches to former governments for years, in an attempt to end discrimination against their community, have now been compelled to resort to violence where the Yemeni government, already under al Qaeda siege, was an easy target”. A military intervention was launched by Saudi Arabia in 2015, leading a coalition of nine African and Middle East countries, to influence the outcome of the Yemeni Civil War in favour of the government of President Hadi. China had used the port in Djibouti since February 2015 but negotiated permission for construction of a permanent military base with President Ismail Omar Guelleh in early 2015. The Chinese began construction on the base in early 2016 and completed construction in July 2017. Djibouti is attractive for numerous reasons, including its proximity to key shipping lanes through the Bab al Mandab Strait and the Suez Canal. Additionally, China’s new presence in Djibouti alongside major Western powers such as the United States, France, Spain, and Italy indicates its intent of maintaining military capabilities with global reach. Now the Horn has become a strategic arena that may determine who will win the war in Yemen. It will also determine who controls the strategic choke points of Bab al Mandab Strait and the Red Sea at large.

Key words: Horn, Africa, Yemen, piracy, GCC, Iran, China, US, EU… 

See lecture here or https://www.academia.edu/38555862/A_New_Global_Re-ordering_trains_its_Strategic_Trajectories_on_the_Horn_of_Africa

Nowhere is this trial for humanity more acute and the need for engagement more urgent than in the Greater Horn of Africa. The ruinous enormities of conflict, El Niño droughts and floods, climate change impacts are happening every day in front of our eyes. Pictures of mothers with vanishing babies at their desiccated breasts should have been galvanising the world, but it suggests itself, and seems within reach, only to elude and appears readily practicable only to resist realisation.

The Mêlée of Power - Quo Vadis Ethiopian Elections 2020 RL Vol XIII No 390 MMXIX

The Mêlée of Power

Quo Vadis Ethiopian Elections 2020?

Who & Where are the Ethiopian Voters?

Public Lecture – Respublica Litereria - RL Vol XIII No 390 MMXIX

Costantinos Berhutesfa Costantinos, PhD

Chair of the Board, Lem Ethiopia, Environment & Development Society

https://addisababa.academia.edu/CostyCostantinos

Abstract

PM Abiy has thrown a blowlamp into the heart of the Horn of Africa society and polity, nerve-wracking the terms of engagement of martial titans and thrown the centre of gravity of the Red Sea arena of war into unprecedented peace trajectory. The way he deconstructed the power monsters of the Horn is purely ontological. This strategy of conjectural rise of political liberalisation in a rough neighbourhood is going to be a seminal lesson in international relations and in political science. On the other hand, resistance to change remains strong and the new openness has led to the flaring of ethnic tensions in some regions. Notwithstanding the doubts and worries, it has raised in the public, ethnocentric devolution remains the bedrock of the constitution. The strategy ap­pears to have been effective not only in allowing the political order to carry out its specific political agenda and ideological goals, but also in setting the tone for the political organisation and activities of alternative and opposition groups - decidedly channelling their activities along ethnic lines. True, political dispute is a necessary force, desir­able be­cause parties speak for varied needs and interests and valued be­cause, if managed judiciously, conflict often serves as a midwife for a society pregnant with change. Nonetheless, the political exploit of the élite raises serious questions on their commitment to pluralism. Noxious activists resist sensibleness, idyllically unmindful of the toxic impact that they have on citizens and seem to derive redress from creating chaos. Pernicious people cloaked as politicians and activists defy rea­son deriving carnality from sadomasochism, ecstat­ically oblivious of their deleterious violence-ridden mission. Nevertheless, to reduce Abiy’s actions to some power-mongering aim as constructed by the ‘supermen’ is too simplistic. There was a sense of aggravation among Ethiopian citizens that have not seen democracy and he seems to be tending to this vexation with gales fuelling the inferno of political liberalisation. There are costs to be paid but as is usual with such change, it enters politics and society in relatively abstract and plain form, yet pundits expect it to land itself to the immediate and vital local polity's socio-political experience. It suggests itself, and seems within reach, only to elude and appears readily practicable only to resist realisation – while he appears unbowed in his drive for democracy, but the jury is still out on whether he can see it through.

Key words: Ethiopia, ethnicity, political liberalisation, elections, opposition, anti-incumbency syndrome,

---

See post here or  https://www.academia.edu/38544821/The_M%C3%AAl%C3%A9e_of_Power_Quo_Vadis_Ethiopian_Elections_2020

A Quintessential ‘Constitutional’ Albatross ‘Till-Death-do Us-Part’ RL Vol XIII No 417 MMXIX

A Quintessential

‘Constitutional’ Albatross

‘Till-Death-do Us-Part’

Nevertheless, the Arab Spring is alive & kicking

Presidential Curses – Tales of Three Neighbours

Public Lecture – Respublica Litereria - RL Vol XIII No 417 MMXIX

Costantinos Berhutesfa Costantinos, PhD

Professor of Public Policy & Sustainable Institutional Reforms

https://addisababa.academia.edu/CostyCostantinos

Abstract

Thousands of people protested in the Algerian capital and other cities demanding that President Bouteflika step down, and the army chief warned that he would not allow a breakdown in security. The ongoing unrest poses the biggest challenge yet to the ailing Bouteflika and a ruling elite still dominated by veterans of the independence war against France. This is the largest protests since the 2011 Arab Spring, calling on Bouteflika, 82, not to stand in an election scheduled for April 18.

On the other hand, Egypt's draft constitution makes president-for-life ambitions official. Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, who came to power in a 2014 coup, is overseeing sweeping legislative measures, which would allow him to stay in power until at least 2034. The planned constitutional amendment, which is currently fast-tracked through parliament and expected to be submitted to a referendum, will explicitly allow the president to appoint judges and remove the power to review new laws from the judiciary. It declares the military the "guardian and protector" of the state and its institutions and extend the jurisdiction of military courts over civilians.

The continuation of the protests against long time authoritarian leader Omar al-Bashir in Sudan have understandably been receiving increasing media attention due to the prospect of real political change in the country. Protests, demonstrations, and strikes have now lasted more than a month and have certainly rattled the ruling regime in Sudan as well as several other regional powers fearful of popular protests spreading throughout the region and challenging their own rule. The unrest in Sudan has its roots in both economic hardships and foreign currency shortages as well as deeper political grievances stemming from the authoritarian and often brutal rule of al-Bashir

The capital was gripped by a mass "democratic celebration.” Nassim Bala, an Algerian activist

With Bouteflika in Algeria looking for a new term, a sick person not seen in public often, continuing al Bashir’s three-decade rule and such changes in Egypt, these are designed to enshrine absolute powers of the president and the dominating role of the military in the constitution. Given the conduct of recent elections in DRC, the outcome of the referendum is a foregone conclusion, with any disapproval will be subject to state violence with no independent media to foster a free dialogue. The faint silver lining of the whole affair is that this enshrines a regime that is already using political violence against thousands of its citizens and will only become more radical in ensuring its continued dominance. With little appetite internationally to pressure such regimes on their human rights and democracy records and massive suppression internally, it will take decades to create the necessary conditions for a new attempt at participatory government in Africa.

Keywords: al-Bashir, Bouteflika, el-Sisi, Algeria, Egypt, Sudan, protests, democracy, livelihood security

see paper here or https://www.academia.edu/38519711/A_Quintessential_Constitutional_Albatross_Till-Death-do_Us-Part_RL_Vol_XIII_No_417_MMXIX

Glocal Asymmetric Warfare & Ordnances’ Supply Chains RL Vol XIII No 418 MMXIX

Glocal Asymmetric Warfare &

Ordnances’ Supply Chains

Strategic Trajectories to Stop Arms Deployments in Yemen

Public Lecture – Respublica Litereria - RL Vol XIII No 418 MMXIX

Costantinos Berhutesfa Costantinos, PhD

Professor of Public Policy & Sustainable Institutional Reforms

https://addisababa.academia.edu/CostyCostantinos

Abstract

The Munich Security Report, 2019, underlines, ‘looking at the current state of international affairs it is difficult to escape the feeling that the world is not just witnessing a series of smaller and bigger crises. Rather, the entire liberal international order appears to be falling apart – nothing will we be as it once was’. The rise of asymmetric warfare associated with guerrilla warfare, insurgency, terrorism, counterinsurgency and counterterrorism, is an existential threat. The qualitative methodology in the assessment of weaponising asymmetric warfare address a knowledge gap predicated on advancing innovative paradigms for glocal ‘counter-terrorism’. Does glocal battle against asymmetric warfare enter societies as an external ideology, constructing and deploying its concepts in sterile abstraction from local beliefs and values? Does it come into play in total opposition to, or in cooperation with historic values and sentiments? The flood of western weaponry is fuelling a conflict that has killed tens of thousands and pushed millions more to the brink of famine, a clear and present danger of a biblical famine engulfing Yemen. The coalition partners fighting Yemeni Houthis have also ‘transferred’ weapons to ‘hard line militias in Yemen, in violation of their agreements with the arms suppliers (CNN). The weapons have also made their way into the hands of rebels battling the coalition for control of the country, exposing some of the West’s sensitive military technology to ‘terrorists’ and potentially endangering the lives of their own troops in other conflict zones. Although Yemen’s President Hadi says ‘a solution in Yemen’s civil war will likely come through military rather than political means, history tells us something different. By late 1965, Egypt had sent 70,000 troops in Yemen. It failed. On top of its military humiliation and financial bankruptcy, Egypt’s international reputation suffered, with the UN condemning the use of banned chemical weapons against Yemeni villages. With a world awash with plenty of deadly ordnances and weapon systems at the hands of asymmetric warfare, the international community to coordinate with each other to cut off the supply chain of funds and weapons to terrorists and prevent them from coming back, in order to consolidate counter-terrorism achievements. Most observers agree that there is no military solution to the conflict. After almost four years of war, the Saudi-backed forces have failed to penetrate the populous western highlands of Yemen where the capital is located. Only a ceasefire and peace negotiations, can bring peace. The crisis is an internal, multi-party conflict that started after the Arab Spring, 2011. It is rooted in the expectations of the people for change, and growing opposition to the corrupt regimes. Nonetheless, outsiders have thrown a monkey wrench into the heart of Arab politics, flustering the terms of engagement and thrown the centre of gravity of the Gulf’s politics into a centripetal implosion.

Key words:  al Qaeda, asymmetric warfare, The Coalition, The Gulf, Western weaponry, Yemen,

See paper here or https://www.academia.edu/38507121/Glocal_Asymmetric_Warfare_and_Ordnances_Supply_Chain_RL_Vol_XIII_No_418_MMXIX.pdf

Engendering National Budgets RL Vol XIII No 421 MMXIX

Engendering National Budgets:

Women ‘Economic & Social’ Empowerment

Plan of Operationalisation

Regional consultative meeting on initiatives on Gender Budgeting

October 23-26, 2006, Dar-es-Salaam, Republic of Tanzania

UNDP Regional Gender Programme for Africa  

Public Lecture – Respublica Litereria - RL Vol XIII No 421 MMXIX

Costantinos Berhutesfa Costantinos, PhD

Professor of Public Policy & Sustainable Institutional Reforms

https://addisababa.academia.edu/CostyCostantinos

Abstract

Representatives of international agencies, state and civil society stakeholders working on Engendering National Budgets and Processes met with a view to addressing the issue of gender responsive budgeting specifically aimed at strengthening the capacity to enable governments to incorporate a gender analysis in planning and evaluating the impact of revenue raising and expenditure allocation at all levels. They aimed to develop supporting strategies for women’s participation in economic decision-making through their engagement in budgetary processes; incorporation of gender into economic governance and leadership processes for women to respond to the challenges of a globalised world and influence macroeconomic policies. Finally, it was to enabling women to hold governments accountable for commitments to women’s rights.

Based on these considerations, the meeting recommends the launching of a comprehensive Gender Responsive Budgeting programme for implementation by all stakeholders, including governments (the Executive, Legislature, Judiciary and MDAs), civil society groups and the development partners (RECS, UN Systems and Multi and bilaterals), as follows. First is the development of constitutional, legislative and administrative provisions to develop and execute gender responsive budgets at all levels of society and polity. Second, to launch a major gender analysis and needs assessment work in all nations with a view to develop sound development plans that are gender responsive -- the assessment will also include monitoring existing gender responsive budgets. Third, based on this assessment develop civic education and training modules with a view to enhance popular base for developing gender responsive budgets and increase awareness in all coordinates of state and society. Finally to come up with a plan of action be developed for operationalisation of this declaration with specific objectives, activities and functions including monitoring indicators assigned to the various goals and strategic objectives

Key words: Engendering National Budgets, constitutional, legislative and administrative provisions

see paper here or http://www.academia.edu/38491770/Engendering_Budgets_-_Women_Economic_and_Social_Empowerment_RL_Vol_XIII_No_422_MMXIX.pdf

Tergiversating Regime ‘Economic Paradigms’ RL Vol XIII No 430 MMXIX

Tergiversating Regime ‘Economic Paradigms’

Shaping the Discourse on Capitalism & Millennial Democratic Socialism - I

Public Lecture – Respublica Litereria - RL Vol XIII No 430 MMXIX

Costantinos Berhutesfa Costantinos, PhD

President, Ethiopian Management Professionals Association

Professor of Public Policy & Sustainable Institutional Reforms

https://addisababa.academia.edu/CostyCostantinos

Abstract

The history of economic thought is a juggernaut of blueprints penned by Adam Smith, Karl Marx, Lenin, Keynes, Hayek, Ricardo, Mill and many pundits who developed unparalleled thoughts throughout the centuries. The forces of the market-state chemistry and capital-labour relations have been the dominant focus of research that inform the vicissitudes witnessed in the inability of economic principles to explain the global crises witnessed in the 21^st Century. One of the differences between neoclassical and Keynesian economics is about the determinants of long run growth. Indeed, there is no natural mechanism producing convergence towards an economy’s potential state. For the value of a commodity, says Marx, is the amount of labour it has within itself. However, no matter what its form, it is eventually reducible to labour, and all commodities, in this perfect system, will be priced according to the amount of labour, direct or indirect, that they contain. Globalisation saw the systematic deployment of outsourcing production in countries offering cheap labour, minimised corporate tax burdens and other incentives for transnational corporations, and the invention of the trade in economic derivatives. Meanwhile, neoliberal political economy gradually became the new orthodoxy, increasing its impact through right wing think tanks and government advisors and spreading its influence in academia and economic thought. Neoliberalism has promoted a self-centeredness pushing Smith-style individualism to an extreme, turning selfishness into a virtue, as Ayn Rand has done. The Economist, in its article, “The resurgent left - Millennial socialism, undergirds a new kind of left-wing doctrine is emerging. Socialism is storming back because it has formed an incisive critique of what has gone wrong in Western societies. Whereas politicians on the right have all too often given up the battle of ideas and retreated towards chauvinism and nostalgia, the left has focused on inequality, the environment, and vesting power in citizens rather than elites. The millennial socialist vision of a “democratised” economy spreads regulatory power around rather than concentrating it. Nevertheless, like the socialism of old, it suffers from a faith in the incorruptibility of collective action and an unwarranted suspicion of individual vim. Rapid and sustained poverty reduction requires inclusive growth that allows people to contribute to and benefit from economic growth. Rapid pace of growth is unquestionably necessary for substantial poverty reduction, but for this growth to be sustainable in the end, it should be broad-based across sectors and inclusive of the large part of a nation’s work force. This implies a direct link between the macro and micro determinants of growth. The micro dimension captures the importance of structural transformation for diversification and competition, including creative destruction of jobs and firms.

Key words: Globalisation, Democratic Socialism, Millennial socialism, Keynesianism, Neoliberalism,

See paper here or https://www.academia.edu/38468491/Tergiversating_Regime_Economic_Paradigms_-_Capitalism_vs._Democratic_Socialism_RL_Vol_XIII_No_430_MMXIX.pdf