Addis Abeba: Is the Exuberance on Property and Real Estate Boom a Prescription for a Meltdown?

Addis Abeba:

Is the Exuberance on Property and

Real Estate Boom a Prescription

for a Meltdown?

Public Lecture - Respublica Literaria XXII, MMVIII

Costantinos Berhutesfa Costantinos, PhD

Professor of Public Policy, School of Graduate Studies,

College of Business and Economics, AAU

       The most important factor driving estate development and rental rates is on the demand side: income. We have witnessed a growing number of rich people (although still in the minority) who want to live in only a few metropolitan areas, primarily those on the Bole; displacing hitherto wealthy underclass of the past regime. In addition to increasing demand for pricier homes, supply of new homes has been constrained. Focused on supply and demand factors for the rise of residential real estate prices, we turn our spotlight on spec­ulative investor sentiment. Since the early 1990s, the rate of growth for housing prices has risen every year. This has created an investor psychology in the nou­veau riche millionaires that crowd the trendy cafés and pubs of Addis and the raw meat alleys of Nazareth. For many Addis Abebans the real estate market has been the latest get-rich-quick in-thing. Indeed, a multitude pack of homeowners and investors have become wealthier as they watched their estate values increase or their investment properties sell for multiples of what they paid for them just a few years ago.

        Nevertheless, the run-up in real estate especially office buildings may be ending and the housing mar­ket's “extraordinary boom” may collapse as it has historically done in the infamous Florida Real Estate Craze. Indubitably, this will herald the transition from urban government to urban governance: two diametrically opposite approaches in urban administration and decision–making systems. Ur­ban government comprises city management on official state authorities. Urban Governance, on the contrary, is a process based on the interaction between official organisations and authorities, which lead city development on the one hand, and of the civil society or the public domain on the other.

Key words: urban government, urban governance, real estate meltdown

Addis view from Sheraton pool

See talk here

Ethiopia - Theoretical undergirding for ‘Statist’ Growth & Transformation Public Policies & Plans

Statist ‘Corporate’ Supremacy

Theoretical undergirding for

‘Statist’ Growth & Transformation

Public Policies & Plans

Sustainable Development & Poverty Reduction Programme (SDPRP, 2001-2005), the

Plan for Accelerated and Sustained Development to End Poverty (PASDEP, 2006-2010) and the Growth and Transformation Plan I (GTP, 2010-2015)

Public Lecture - Respublica Literaria XCXIII, MMXVI

Costantinos Berhutesfa Costantinos, PhD

Professor of Public Policy, School of Graduate Studies,

College of Business and Economics, AAU

Abstract

    Notwithstanding Venezuela’s poster child of the perils of rejecting economic fundamentals - to achieve social goals, it is better to use – rather than repress – the market, Ethiopia’s statist ‘corporate’ supremacy is a tool used since 2006 to set a framework for state-led and private sector implemented infrastructure development. It is a broad and very complex process. The main hypothesis in addressing the public sector driven efficiency wave is that ‘in the absence of institutional investors in the major infrastructure works, more market contracting to the private sector by the state will lead to greater cost efficiency, without the welfare state having to loose monopoly of the means and instruments of production’. critical policy reflection: a seminal goal which, done well, simultaneously facilitates a kaleidoscopic of other ends, best conceived as the hub around which all other developmental ends cluster - skills, abilities, and values critical to success in industrialisation and robust ‘democratic’ rules, institutions, policies and practices.

     Ethiopia has recorded significant and sustained progress in economic and social development, pursuing a state capitalist public sector-led growth strategy that focuses on promoting growth through high public investment supported partly by low nominal interest rates. While the strategy has contributed to robust economic growth in the past, recent developments indicate a build-up of vulnerabilities, which need to be addressed in order to sustain this level of performance. The nation had placed MDGs & SDGs at the centre of its overall development context. The purpose here is to set forth a theoretical framework for public policy implementation by synthesizing the related and theoretically consistent concepts of public management, good governance and indigenous society directorial institutions. Liberalisation of the major economic sectors (finance, telecom, aviation, shipping, energy ), with the government holding on to majority shares, could trigger a process of virtuous change based on inward FDI and improvement and complementarities between public and private investments.

Key words: statist ‘corporate’ supremacy, critical policy reflection, infrastructure contracting

See paper here

Public Policy Tangents: El Niño scrunches Global Weather & Wreaks Havoc in Africa

Public Policy Tangents:

El Niño scrunches Global Weather & Wreaks Havoc in Africa

With the destruction in the global weather system that stuck, impacts both devastating and beneficial are being felt globally but more significantly in Horn of Africa

Public Lecture - CIX, MMXV, IDDS - ISSN 1018-1164

Costantinos Berhutesfa Costantinos, PhD,

Chair, Ethiopica Infrastructure & Tunnelling Co.

Professor of Public Policy, School of Graduate Studies,

College of Business & Economics, AAU,

Abstract

      El Niño is characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures as opposed to La Niña, which characterized by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific. El Niño is an oscillation of the ocean-atmosphere system in the tropical Pacific having important consequences for weather around the globe. In the Horn of Africa, Southern Africa and West & Central Africa sub-regions drought is wreaking havoc on economies, a drought exacerbated by El Niño has directly affected the Horn of Africa region, leading to an increase in food insecurity and malnutrition. As of March 2016, the FSNWG reports close to 19.5 million people in the region are facing critical and emergency food insecurity levels. Some examples of short to long-term strategies that could be employed, particularly for building climate resilience in the agricultural sector: early warning and monitoring strategies, mitigation, adaptation and response strategies and long-term adaptation strategies

     What are the policy implications for the Horn of Africa? The Government of Ethiopia is strongly in the lead of the El Niño response, and has committed over US$838 million to provide humanitarian assistance to the most vulnerable. While such assistance is very timely and apposite to save lives, the implementation will be premised on the fact that it is an opportunity for further development as it has brought out various gaps and weakness in development that needs to be redressed.  Any assistance to affected areas shall sub-serve the goals of socioeconomic growth and sustainable development. The economy should be able to recover quickly in order for the economy to withstand other future stresses and maintain sustainable livelihood security. The need to consider policy, legislative, human, natural and financial resources as well as motivational goals required for the successful attainment of stress prevention, preparedness and mitigation. Thus, the challenge in implementing this policy is to ensure that emergency preparedness becomes bridge to prevention and development. Preparedness should be a basis for sustaining life during emergencies and maintaining the morale of affected groups in order to create conditions for qualitative social change.

Key words:  El Niño, La Niña, ENSO, drought, floods, hunger, preparedness, prevention

See paper here

A Diplomatic Supremo in Africa: Priming International Relations Policy & Practice on Regional Integration, Peace & Security

A Diplomatic Supremo in Africa:

Priming International Relations Policy & Practice on

Regional Integration, Peace & Security

Policy Research and Analysis Department, Ministry of Foreign Affairs 
United Nations Conference Centre, Addis Abeba,

Public Lecture - Respublica Literaria CCIII, MMXVI

Costantinos Berhutesfa Costantinos, PhD

Professor of Public Policy, School of Graduate Studies,

College of Business and Economics, AAU

Abstract

       The philosophical underpinning of Ethiopia’s overseas, overland and national security policies augurs on diplomatic activities trained at advancing a pluralist society and serving the country’s rapid economic development. Challenged by poverty and El Nino droughts, Ethiopia is consciously pursuing structural transformation meeting the MDGs and successively implementing the SDGs.  Located in a turbulent region, new martial and security scenarios in the Greater Horn of Africa with Yemen as the epicenter, one may ask if the Gulf Cooperation Council’s (GCC) move into the greater Horn will have a destabilizing effect Ethiopia. Is its incursion onto one of the most contested regions (The Horn’s pariah state) as a staging point or will this embolden the irredentist agenda of the pariah state and Al Shabaab?”

       Regional integration and economic development is difficult. Eloquent testimony to this effect is provided by the list of advanced economies compiled by the IMF. There are functioning models to emulate, a consensus concerning the characteristics of economies that have successfully developed, and decades of experience with a wide range of policy prescriptions. Ethiopia has moved quickly to integrate the region with power supply, road and rail networks (Djibouti, Sudan, Somaliland, Puntland, Somalia, Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, etc.). Ethiopia’s move to allow Somalilanders to move freely with goods and services into Ethiopia in the early nineties has had immense contribution to peace in that unrecognized nation. The recommendations augur on a need for a clear policy and strategy on the GCC venture in the Red Sea and Chinese investment and branding Ethiopia. Unless the overall strategy rings true about its people, there is little chance that it will be believed or endorsed by the population, much more the rest of the world. Furthermore, in a digital era that could render diplomats irrelevant, but still make the core of international relations, a meritocratic strategy must transform diplomacy into the 21^st century.

Key words: diplomacy, international relations, regional security, regional integration,

See paper here

See presentation here

Devolutionary Refractions: The 21st Century’s Delusional ‘Democracy’

What is gone wrong with democracy? 

Democracy was the most successful political idea of the 20th century. Why it run into trouble? What can be done to revive it? (The Economist, 2015)

Devolutionary Refractions:

The 21^st Century’s Delusional ‘Democracy’

Public Lecture, CCIX, MMXVI

Costantinos Berhutesfa Costantinos, PhD,

Professor of Public Policy, School of Graduate Studies,

College of Business & Economics, AAU,

Abstract

  Ivan Krastev challenge us by saying, you believe that the government is not sufficiently transparent. You are mistaken transparency hurts democracy. If we reflect on the most important concepts in political science vocabulary (democracy, liberalism, authoritarianism, transparency, etc.), it is apparent that they are used with so many different meanings that it is easy to prove contradictory theses simultaneously. This is a source of renewable energy in the humanities, but it is considered dangerous by some, or even contaminated. Hence, repeated attempts distil the language of the humanities so that in the patiently anticipated future it will become a substitute for formal logic notation. At pivotal moments in the past, altering the rules of the political has been a defining trait of the organised left, able to project a new social order out of latent concerns, as well as develop the means to alter the grammar of politics. If democracy means rule by the people for the people, it has broken down (Amin, 2012). Democracy is going through a difficult time. Where autocrats have been driven out of office, their opponents have mostly failed to create viable regimes (The Economist, 2015).

The Chinese Communist Party has broken the democratic world’s monopoly on economic progress standards of roughly once every 30 years. China has been doubling living standards roughly every decade for the past 30 years. The Chinese elite argue that their model—tight control by the Communist Party, coupled with a relentless effort to recruit talented people into its upper ranks—is more efficient than democracy and less susceptible to gridlock. Hence, the central hypothesis is that the relative strength of political organisations determines the rules of the political game that are installed. Democratisation requires a plural set of political organisations, which promote and protect rules of peaceful political participation and competition. Together, democratic institutions (plural organisations plus rules of accountability) ensure control of the state executive.

Key words: democracy, elections, economic progress, authoritarianism,

See paper here or https://www.academia.edu/25575217/Devolutionary_Tangents_-_The_21st_Century_Delusional_Democracy

Rastafarianisim, Religion & Jamaica’s visit of His Majesty Emperor Haile Sellasse I

Rastafarianisim, Religion &

Jamaica’s visit of His Majesty Emperor 
Haile Sellasse I

Costantinos Berhutesfa Costantinos

Ethiopian Patriots Diamond Jubilee CXVIII-II, MMXVI,

Talk @ Scouts, Addis Abeba, May 5, 2016

Above all, Haile Sellasse has created a general, warm and blind sympathy for uncivilized Ethiopia throughout civilized Christendom. In the wake of the world's grandiose Depression, with millions of white men uncertain as to the benefits of civilization, 1935 produced a peculiar Spirit of the Year in which it was felt to be a crying shame that the Machine Age seemed about to intrude upon Africa's last free, unscathed and simple people. They were ipso facto Noble Savages, and the noblest Ethiopian of them all naturally emerged as Man of the Year.”

TIME, Man of the Year, XVI, Nov 18, 1936

Summary

        Jamaica of Rastafarians received HIM Emperor Haile Sellasse’s memorable visit to Ja­maica on April 21 1966 as if it were the second coming of Christ. No other state visit has captured the triumph of hu­man spirit as this. This lecture is about religion, a set of beliefs vis-à-vis the cause, nature, and purpose of the universe, especially when considered as the creation of a super human agency or agencies, usually involving devo­tional and ritual observances, and often containing a moral code gov­erning the conduct of human affairs. Calvinistic Methodists were born out of the Methodist Revival in 18th Century Wales (after John Cal­vin). They survive as a body of Christians now forming the Presby­terian Church of Wales. Wesleyanism is a movement of Protestant Christians who seek to follow the methods or theology of the eight­eenth-century evangelical reformers John Wesley and his brother Charles Wesley. Martinism is a form of Christian mysticism and eso­teric Christianity concerned with the fall of the first man, his state of material privation from his di­vine source, and the process of his return, called 'Reintegration' or illumination. 

       So what is wrong with the Rastafarianism as a ‘religion’? Rastafarisim is an Abrahamic belief, which developed in Ja­maica in the 1930s, following the coronation of Haile Selassie I as Emperor of Ethiopia in 1930. Its adherents worship him in much the same way as Jesus in his Second Advent. The father of African independence and African unity is being dully remembered by the Rastafarians, who deserve credit for this at a time when our historic leaders are being denied recognition by present generations.

See lecture here or https://www.academia.edu/25058491/Rastafarianisim_Religion_and_Jamaicas_visit_of_His_Majesty_Emperor

Messengers of Peace - African Scouts Scouting, Noble Citizenship & Youth Programme of Human Security

Messengers of Peace - African Scouts

Scouting, Noble Citizenship & Youth Programme of Human Security

Costantinos Berhutesfa Costantinos, PhD

Chief Scout, Ethiopian Scouts, Professor of Public Policy, 
School of Graduate Studies, AAU

A panel lecture on Africa Scout Day

A Scout is Trustworthy, Loyal, Helpful, Friendly, Courteous, Kind, Obedient, Cheerful, Thrifty, Brave, Clean, Reverent

Summary

        Advances in human thought and action towards global justice and universalization of guarantees for human rights, are gathering added momentum with the motive energy contributed by unprecedented events following the end of the Cold War. Such developments notwithstanding, conflicts have displaced over 60 million people today. The Messengers of Peace initiative by some 40 million young scouts worldwide is taking on the task of human security globally. Our vision is that Scouting will be the foremost youth program of character development and values-based leadership training. Scouting will continue to offer young people responsible fun and adventure; instill in young people lifetime values and develop in them ethical character as expressed in the Scout Oath and Law. 

        It is to train young people in noble citizenship, service, and leadership to serve communities and families with its quality, values-based programmes. We envision Scouting entering its second century as an influential, value-based enlightening movement focused on achieving its mission, attracting and retaining more and more young people coming from broader segments of society; in all cultures; as dynamic, innovative Movement with adequate resources and democratic decision making processes where organization, management and communication are effective at all levels. In this regards, scouts will engage in brave and direct action taking the bull by the horn in training and civic education on stemming human insecurity and domestication of international instruments, build coalition to ensure human security capacity building is undertaken by civil societies. They will promote integrated humanitarian and development projects, including income generating and self-reliance activities, education and infrastructure development; establishing human security research capacity, develop durable solutions and comprehensive response strategies to human insecurity.

Key words: messengers of peace, citizenship, youth development, empowerment, peace

See paper here

Official Premier of ‘TISM’

Official Premier of ‘TISM’

– Sheraton Addis, 16 May 2016, a Review

Costantinos Berhutesfa Costantinos

Sheraton Addis, Addis Abeba, May 16, 2016

          I was invited to see the premier of TISM, the brainchild of Kalkidan Getahun (Kal), a romantic story film by Bekal Productions, focused on a poorly understood human condition – autism. TISM, directed by  Sophonyas Taddese has brought up the spirited love story of a couple against a backdrop of human trafficking, violence against young girls, even, humorously, the diasporic flamboyant café demeanor of Daniel Gebeyehu and the dedication of a few heroines that face autism with candor.

 Autism is a complex brain condition, encompassing a broad range of symptoms. These can include discomfort around other people, hypersensitivity to sounds, touch, tastes, smells and light and obsessive interests. Autism affects different people in different ways. Some autistics score above average on intelligence tests but struggle to communicate verbally and make compulsively repetitive movements. Others have a healthy vocabulary but pitiable motor control, which can make writing by hand or using a fork difficult. The autism of a particularly high-functioning person might be almost imperceptible, manifesting itself only subtly in an obsessive interest with subjects (Israel’s army uses autistic volunteers to interpret complicated satellite images). The causes of autism are not well understood. Researchers believe that autism begins developing early in life. Although parents sometimes notice their babies behaving oddly before the age of one, symptoms do not always appear until later.

   The up-&-coming-star-studded TISM has brought forth an intellectual prowess to a human condition with a cherished inkling that the arenas of human narratives do not have to be simply witty, heartrending, amorous or polemical. In her seminal work, Kal decorously envisioned it to be all at once witty, excruciating, emotional and quixotic in context and content, bringing numerous façades of import, sequentially and concurrently to the dramaturgical scene. Plain absurdity of the Casanova style diaspora, Daniel Gebeyehu, comes with the passionate but hidden love story of a quintessentially beautiful Netsanet Aytenfisu (Lishan) and the grand autistic impersonator and great actor, Elias Wosenyeleh (Surafel), with (Misrak) Kalkidan Getaneh’s mix of heightened nobleness, grief and sensation, climaxing in the interminably tender flash of amour and courtship.

       Kal’s anecdotes depict a line of shadowy realism of an autistic condition in a heightened emotion of Surafel’s aptitude to fall in love with Lishan. In this literary immaculateness of a cerebral state, Kal’s script emerges as a lead narrative in recounting the condition of children in need of succor. TISM proves once again that such parables are futile unless they illuminate hominid Samaritan-ness. This film shows us that compassion rings in the ear of the deaf and glows the eyes of the blind and the limits to great deeds are only defined by the trajectory of how far our imagination can fly to. This is a-must-see film for all families.

Costantinos, May 16, 2016

Structural Transformation in Africa: Policy, Strategy, Process & Structure Ethiopia Case Study

Structural Transformation in Africa:

Policy, Strategy, Process & Structure

Ethiopia Case Study

Public Lecture - Respublica Literaria CXXXIX, MMXVI

Costantinos Berhutesfa Costantinos, PhD

Professor of Public Policy, School of Graduate Studies,

College of Business and Economics, AAU

Abstract

This lecture evaluates achievements and challenges of the industrial development strategy of Ethiopia. During the study, the researcher undertook a literature review and collected primary data from government officials and secondary data from national reports. The discourse in the literature and findings of different empirical studies were reviewed and triangulated with the content of the interviews that were held with key informants. Three major obstacles must be overcome in order to make industrial policy in developing countries more successful: bad economic advice, development agencies and private consultancies, which say that they have identified the best practice and can provide you with a golden ticket to economic prosperity and the allure of FDI. The success of industrial policy in developing countries will be greatly enhanced by recognition of the wealth latent in their own national value chains and of their right and responsibility to limit foreign presence when it infringes on their capacity to build an economy, which serves their populations’ needs (Janoo, 2016:1).

Source Economic Report on Africa, 2013

The findings of the study showed that the strategy has resulted in good growth of the industry sector, brought remarkable improvements, and contributed to the development of the national economy. Nevertheless, the study leads to the conclusion that the strategy is not effective in bringing structural change in the economy. Moreover, if structural change is desired in a manner that allows industry to take the lead in the economy, Ethiopia still needs to invest in a number of areas for the realization of this goal. Investments to increase the agricultural productivity, enhancing forward and back ward linkages of the manufacturing sector, tapping into the mining sector, linking research and development works and improving the overall business and investment climate are recommended to enhance the effectiveness of the Industrial development strategy. Credit and capital markets are vital to industrialisation. The lecture is based on Misgana Tekle’s 2015 AAU MPA thesis

Key words: industrial policy, industrial strategy, technology, capital, management know how

See article here