The World Braces for 2019-2020 Global Recession RL Vol XIII No 583 MMXIX

The World Braces for 2019-2020 Global Recession

Macro-Policy Chokehold for a Global Recession unlike any other amid a World Polarised by the US and China trade war

Public lecture – Respublica Litereria - RL Vol XIII No 583 MMXIX

Costantinos Berhutesfa Costantinos, PhD

Former Chairperson of the African Union Anti-corruption Advisory Board &

Professor of Public Policy and Sustainable Institutional Reforms

https://addisababa.academia.edu/CostyCostantinos

Abstract

A recession is a period of declining economic performance across an entire economy, frequently measured as two consecutive quarters. Businesses, investors and government officials track various economic indicators that can help predict or confirm the onset of recessions. Recessions are visible in industrial production, employment, real income, and wholesale-retail trade. The working definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth as measured by a country's GDP. On August 14, recession warning came from the bond and stock markets. Stocks fell about 3% a day on bad economic news from Germany, China and the bond markets. Europe's largest economy shrank by 0.1% in the second quarter as exports fell amid trade and Brexit uncertainty. Chinese measurements of factory production, consumption and employment also revealed a declining economy. China's 4.8% increase in industrial production was a low period of 17 years. Investors saw all of this and headed for the tall grass of US Treasury. The yield on the 10-year note was 1.58%, dipping a period below the two-year bond yield. The 30-year Treasury reached a record low of 2.018% and closed at 2.02%. Returns at this low show that investors are moving out of risk weights, signalling slower growth ahead – perhaps even a recession with smaller events and better policies fostering more optimism (WSJ, 2019). Contemporary supporters of Marx argue most generally that Marx was correct that human behaviour reflects historical and social conditions. More specifically, they argue his analysis of social class and commodities is still very useful, that his critique of capitalism can easily be applied to the current global situation, and that alienation is still a problem

Since the 2008 crisis, policymakers are even more keenly aware of the relevance of global factors to policies. The global nature of the financial crisis and the channels through which it spread sharply highlight the interconnectedness of economic, financial, and policy environments. An important feature is the tools central bankers now have to fight recessions. In the face of the dramatic economic and financial collapse during the crisis, policymakers quickly exhausted conventional monetary policy tools and employed a range of unconventional measures to support their economies. The Great Recession brought into stark relief the need for transpar­ency and accountability for central banks. Central bank communication is increasingly important and increasingly challenging. Moreover, the audience has become more varied, more attuned to our actions, and less trusting of public institutions. Central banks must speak to Main Street, as well as Wall Street, in ways we have not in the past, and Main Street is listening and engaged. Where does this leave us, and how should policymakers adapt to this new environment? Recognizing challenges posed by the changing structure of the economy, the need for effective policy responses and the importance of clear communication, central banks are taking a closer look at their strategies and the range of tools currently at their disposal (FP Editors, 2019). When European and North American banks teetered on the brink of meltdown in 2008, requiring bailouts and extraordinary central bank intervention, Canadian banks escaped relatively unscathed (Beisie, 2019).

Keywords: Great Recession, policymakers, recession, trade, U.S.-China trade war, Inverted Yield Curve, free and fair trade, accumulation of legitimate grievances 

See paper here or https://www.academia.edu/40400126/Macro-Policy_Chokehold_-_The_World_Braces_for_2019-2020_Global_Recession_RL_Vol_XIII_No_583_MMXIX

see the presentation here or https://prezi.com/uprao4secskk/?utm_campaign=share&utm_medium=copy