Is ‘Ideology’ thwarting ‘‘Doing Business’’ & ‘Global Competitiveness’ RL Vol XIII No 423 MMXIX

Is ‘Ideology’ thwarting ‘‘Doing Business’’ & ‘Global Competitiveness’

Ethiopia: A Narrative of Hesitant Capitalism?

Public Lecture – Respublica Litereria - RL Vol XIII No 423 MMXIX

Costantinos Berhutesfa Costantinos, PhD

President, Lem Ethiopia, Environment & Development Society

Professor of Public Policy & Sustainable Institutional Reforms

https://addisababa.academia.edu/CostyCostantinos

Abstract

Ethiopia’s economy has recently been growing rapidly that provides opportunities to integrate investment and aid with a strong economy to finance development within. Nonetheless, Ethiopia’s poor record of 122^nd nation among 140 nations in the World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Index 4.0 and 161 place among 190 nations in the World Bank’s ‘Doing Business’ is disheartening. Both measure Ethiopia’s pitiable global competitiveness resulting in poor balance of payments, its business regulations and their implications for firm establishment and operations affecting private sector development and FDI. There is no meaningful privatisation of finance in Ethiopia. Why do governments – here and elsewhere – resist privatisation, and privatisation of finance, in particular? The command behaviour and resistance to privatisation is endemic to the benevolent attitude of governments that lack faith in the collective wisdom coming from private initiative: improvement of the global risk-reward ratio faced by global investors. With a life span of many decades, the ‘deep state’ has exhibited an enhanced degree of coercive power, corruption is the perpetual spring of all wasteful extravagance and illicit financial flows. Eloquent testimony to the complexity of a globally competitive and business friendly Ethiopia is provided by the predictable armour of trials it faces with too few mechanism, while also wrestling with perennial problems of policy reforms subject to doctrinal reins.

Hence the paper discusses legal protection of rights and advancing the rule of law, elimination of absolute poverty will entail a two-pronged approach in reforming the very strategy and structure of rules and institutions. Economic and social governance must focus on policy regimes that enhance people’s capacity to achieve sustainable livelihoods. Government corporate plans, if well designed can provide the basis for establishing the state’s ‘core activities’ and recognition and acknowledgement of the importance of credit and capital markets; creation and nurturing of enabling environments for entrepreneurship to attract investors and tourists; and promotional and educational efforts on capital markets must be developed. A democratic Ethiopia has to shed control from the ‘deep state’ organs of state. Hence, to found a globally competitive Ethiopia with high scores on the ease of doing business, the state needs to develop corporate strategic and business plans for the 21^st century. A disciplined, healthy, nourished, and motivated civil service labour force is required to produce and distribute goods and services. Leadership teams committed to facilitate opportunities for every citizen would require a proactive and innovative managerial and entrepreneurial will power, which under the current dispensation seem attainable, but only to elude; it seems practicable, only to resist realization. Based on the issues that have arisen policy questions addressed include access to justice and rule of law, property rights, labour rights and expanding opportunities for legal business organisation.

Key words: Ethiopia, access to justice and rule of law, property rights, labour rights, entrepreneurial rights, competitiveness, doing business, 

See paper here or https://www.academia.edu/38448113/Is_Ideology_thwarting_Doing_Business_and_Global_Competitiveness_RL_Vol_XIII_No_423_MMXIX.pdf

Dialectical & Policy Vistas on the Potential for an African Free Trade Area RL Vol XIII No 419 MMXIX

Dialectical & Policy

Vistas on the Potential for an African Free Trade Area

Public Lecture – Respublica Litereria - RL Vol XIII No 419 MMXIX

Costantinos Berhutesfa Costantinos, PhD

Former Chairperson of the AU Anti-Corruption Advisory Board

Professor of Public Policy & Sustainable Institutional Reforms

https://addisababa.academia.edu/CostyCostantinos

Abstract

The pact that has evolved in international trade under GATT and WTO tends to focus on free and fair trade but it is not sufficient for inclusive affluence. Trade is inherently buttressed by a reciprocally favourable set of voluntary exchanges that are best conducted as a compliant venture. Rightful complaints undermine the epitome and veracity of free trade. Mending these has proven nauseatingly slow.

Hence, the stewardship, management and administration of the trade relations in Africa are marked by uniquely austere organisational-strategic issues. Even under favourable contemporary global conditions, historical, ideological and strategic characteristics internal and external to Africa still would exist that make that transition a costly exercise. Characteristics and problems of this sort can be identified and understood through critical, yet constructive, analysis focused on certain key elements of the African Common Market. There is no simple or immediate identification of the challenges in setting up the African Common Market as they actually are; there is only a definition of them from a certain perspective and towards a certain ‘resolution’. The vision of the founding fathers of African Unity was to promote unity and solidarity, rid the continent of the remaining vestiges of colonisation and apartheid, coordinate and intensify cooperation for development, safeguard the sovereignty and territorial integrity and promote international cooperation within the framework of the UN Charter.

Participants in the complex traffic web of African futures could be torn between professional caution and the genuine desire for a better future. Such loft visions notwithstanding, repeated attempts to dispel the prevailing gloom to check the overall drift towards ‘fragmentation’ have not yielded to popular aspirations. This raises the fundamental question of what do we mean by African integration in the first place and does it has indigenous roots. Lurking in the background of all these questions is the rather disturbing one: is perhaps all this talk of African development an academic or a public relations exercise? If African leaders want an AU that is relevant to the ordinary Africans, AU must implement the declarations so far, not another norm-setting”. The African Common Market will very much depend on free expression of diverse ideas and beliefs, emergence of supportive set of rules and economic and political institutions and financing peace in Africa. Ultimately, the Constitutive Act of the African Union must migrate from “We, Heads of State and Government of the Member States” to “We the People of the African Union”.

Key words: African continental free trade area, African Union, Trade, Tariffs, rules & institutions

See paper here or https://www.academia.edu/38408744/Dialectical_and_Policy_Vistas_on_African_Free_Trade_Area_RL_Vol_XIII_No_419_MMXIX.pdf

Commentary - Making the PM’s Vision a Reality RL Vol XIII No 406 MMXIX

Commentary –

PM Abiy’s speech at the WEF in Davos:

Making the PM’s Visionary Thought, a Reality

Public Lecture – Respublica Litereria - RL Vol XIII No 406 MMXIX

Costantinos Berhutesfa Costantinos, PhD

Professor of Public Policy & Sustainable Institutional Reforms

https://addisababa.academia.edu/CostyCostantinos

Let me start my commentary by the answers of PM Abiy to the last questions presented to him at the Davos lecture. PM Abiy said that Ethiopia is open for business now and everyone is welcome to a democratic Ethiopia and its liberalised economy. On a general note, Abiy’s speech at Davos indicates a major shift from his party’s ideological leanings of ‘revolutionary democracy’ and ‘democratic developmental state’. Abiy addresses an international audience for the first time at a summit in the WEF in Davos, heralding his ‘medemer’ idea at the outset, declaring that we must all walk together to go far. On political liberalisation, although Ethiopia has a long way to go, Abiy said he released thousands of political detainees and he lifted the state of emergency with a view to foster democracy. He has made peace with Eritrea. In October 2018, he appointed women in half the ministerial posts, and followed it by nominating Ethiopia’s first female president and first female president of the federal Supreme Court.

On the economy, he said that although Ethiopia is growing at 8% and above per annum, his government would work on the liberalisation of the economy and attracting international capital and expertise. His aim is to launch public private partnerships (PPP) for balanced long-term, inclusive and sustainable growth and development for citizens to realise their full potential. Business and government relations will be substantially improved. He said that he would make the private sector and private capital the centre of Ethiopia’s transformational development.

On regional integration and openness, he said that Addis is the seat of the AU, and hence, his aim to contribute the African common economic community and Ethiopia’s accession to the WTO. He said peace and harmony are important for Africa. Therefore, his vision of a collective effort for Africa’s common growth. Investing in the African continent has high returns that will catalyse structural transformation. He said we must lead by example to transform the continent. He concluded his speech by saying that Ethiopia’s over 9% economic growth for over a decade is testimony to his government’s commitment for promoting growth and invite investors to come and see of what we offer – tourism, business, leisure. Nevertheless, what does it take to make his speech a reality?

An efficient and a development-oriented private sector provides the nourishment, which markets require to grow and function effectively. Markets themselves provide the credit ingredients, which the private sector requires to grow, expand and contribute to devel­opment. Thus, there is a reciprocal and mutually productive rela­tionship between the private sector and credit and capital markets. The commentary focuses on political liberalisation & democracy, participatory policy development, public governance and administration, civil society development, mind-set of the civil service and diplomacy and nation branding. It further augurs on setting up a cabinet think tank to support the PM and the academia’s essential task. On the economy, it dwells on economic and social governance, liberalisation of state owned enterprises, the private sector & capital, joining WTO, regional integration and regional peace as the goal.

See commentary here or https://www.academia.edu/38358031/Commentary_-_Making_the_PM_s_Vision_a_Reality_RL_Vol_XIII_No_406_MMXIX 

Priming Peace & Integration in the Horn of Africa RL Vol XIII No 374 MMXIX

Priming Peace, Integration &

Livelihood Security in the Horn of Africa

The Greater Horn of Africa ‘Manifesto’

A Horn of Africa dialogue Primer - RL Vol XIII No 374 MMXIX

Costantinos Berhutesfa Costantinos, PhD

Professor of Public Policy & Sustainable Institutional Reforms

https://addisababa.academia.edu/CostyCostantinos

Abstract

  Leaders of Somalia, Ethiopia and Eritrea who have never come face to face to build peace in the Horn have now been invited by the charismatic Premier, Abiy. Now that the Horn of Africa nations have pledged to make peace, this paper builds the case for building a peace constituency for in the Greater Horn of Africa nations that share the same history. Regional integration involves hard infrastructure - large physical networks necessary for the functioning of modern industrial nations and soft infrastructure refers to all the institutions, which are required to maintain the economic, health, and cultural and social standards of a sub-region. Recently, people of the Horn of Africa, have been engaged in debates about new bold ideas of reform presented by the new populist, energetic leader of Ethiopia Abiy who has embarked on a wide-ranging transformative reform in Ethiopia and a regional integration initiative in the Horn of Africa region. Nonetheless, questions arise. Which model of confederation, timing, actors, governing rules and institutions will be established? Will the populations of the three states have a say in this? Is the proposed confederacy owned and led by the three countries or are there other actors who move the levers of power behind the scenes? The paper recommends the development of a code of practice. The guiding principle of the code hence is that concrete processes need to be established to enable politics to be transparent, accountable, predictable and exercise a level of excellence transcending personal motives and boundaries. It also recommends Alternative conflict management approaches derive from several basic premises about the nature of conflict, change and power. While most Horn of Africa conflicts are state driven, the Somalia case presents itself for ACM where the author argues for creating avenues for speaking to al Shabaab as potential partners in peace. PM Abiy has thrown a blowlamp into the heart of Horn of Africa and Ethiopian society and polity, nerve-wracking the terms of engagement of martial titans and thrown the centre of gravity of the Red Sea arena of war into unprecedented peace trajectory. The way he deconstructed the power monsters of the Horn region is purely ontological. This strategy of conjectural rise of political liberalisation in a rough neighbourhood of the Horn is going to be a seminal lesson in international relations and in political science for a long time to come. To reduce this action to some power mongering aim on behalf of the PM, as constructed by the supermen of the Horn, is too simplistic. There was a sense of aggravation among the citizens of the Horn that have not seen peace in decades and he seems to be tending to this vexation with gales that are fuelling the inferno of political transformation. There are costs to be paid but as is usual with such change, it enters politics and society in relatively abstract and plain form, yet pundits expect it to land itself to the immediate and vital local polity's socio-political experience. It suggests itself, and seems within reach, only to elude and appears readily practicable only to resist realisation (Costantinos, 2018).

Key words: Horn of Africa, Abiy, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia, peace, integration, confederation,

See the Horn of Africa dialogue primer here or  https://www.academia.edu/38326095/Priming_Peace_and_Integration_in_the_Horn_of_Africa_RL_Vol_XII_No_374_MMXVIII

Sudan at Cross roads – Building Democratic Institutions RL Vol XIII No 412 MMXIX

Sudan at Cross roads –

The Saga of Decadence, Regime Change & Building Democratic Institutions

Respublica Litereria Public Lecture - RL Vol XIII No 412 MMXIX

Costantinos Berhutesfa Costantinos, PhD

Professor of Public Policy & Sustainable Institutional Reforms

https://addisababa.academia.edu/CostyCostantinos

Abstract

As Africa’s largest landmass inhabited by forty million people of a kaleidoscope of shades and colours, Sudan is one of Africa’s impoverished, but well-endowed nations. The AU Technical Mission on Darfur was headed by the author. Its research questions focused on the following. What brought about Sudan’s conflicts? What are the impact of these conflicts and ripple effects in the Horn of Africa? What are the strategic options for enhancing human security and prospects for democratic governance and resolving ethnic conflicts? The atrocities that citizens and IDPs refer to in Darfur and elsewhere are all too evident to demand any major explanation and too terrifying and menacing to believe. According to the IDPs leaders (Sheikhs), women, girls, NGOs, and human rights groups interviewed by the research team and existing reports, murder, rape, beating, and bigotry are common in Sudan by heavily armed militias. In some of the accounts Government soldiers and the police are implicated in participation and often abetting this horror. In the following, is presented the various human right abuses in Sudan. These include rape as a savage instrument of humiliation, rise of vigilante gangs, death of non-combatants, and systematic destruction of villages, IDP camps were turned into IDP prisons and armed robbery, abductions, and delivering relief aid become dangerous and break up within the SLM and JEM.

On 13 Nov 2018, a report was released by the IMF on the state of consumer subsidies in Sudan to protect low-income families, was expensive, ineffective and counterproductive. The protests against al-Bashir removing subsidies sparked massive nation-wide protests. The string of protests, beginning in 2018, show no signs of tapering off and may serve as a more serious challenge to the rule of al-Bashir than ever before. In highlighting the uniqueness of this round of protests, some observers have pointed to these protests’ longevity as well as a number of other factors such as apparent rifts within al-Bashir’s own political party and the unity between opposition groups against the ruling regime. The will of the Sudanese youth is unmasking the dogma of a violent regime. Revolution has begun in Sudan. It is over for the current Sudanese regime; there is no going back. One would think that the idea of removing a long time authoritarian leader, especially one who has had an arrest warrant issued by the ICC, would be a welcome development from the perspective of many western countries. However, there does not appear to be any real support for the protests from western powers apart from statements that express some apprehensions about the way with which the protests are being dealt with. To avoid the Libya, Syria and Yemen scenario, Mr. Bashir should build democratic institutions that can be explained with reference to two institutional factors political organisations and political rules. The central hypothesis is that the relative strength of political agencies determines the rules of the political game that are installed. Democratisation requires a plural set of political organisations, which promote and protect rules of peaceful political participation and competition.

Key words: Sudan, human rights, Darfur, IMF, popular protest, Bashir, Media, Arab Spring, political organisations and political rules
See lecture here or https://www.academia.edu/38316274/Sudan_at_Cross_roads_Regime_Change_and_Building_Democratic_Institutions_RL_Vol_XIII_No_412_MMXIX.pdf

Institutions, Political Culture Development and current Perspectives on Democratisation in Africa - RL Vol X No 12 MMVII

Institutions, Political Culture Development and current Perspectives on Democratisation in Africa

Reporter Interview, Addis Abeba, 2007

Respublica Litereria Interview Transcript - RL Vol X No 12 MMVII

Costantinos Berhutesfa Costantinos, PhD

Professor of Public Policy & Sustainable Institutional Reforms

https://addisababa.academia.edu/CostyCostantinos

Summary

The trust of the interview is that political culture and democratic development derives from the following three distinct sets of factors. The vital component of these factors is an institutional approach to political culture development that would appear to offer considerable explanatory power. The widespread incidence of social conflict and political instability in Africa is directly attributable to basic weaknesses of political institutions. While African states have greatly expanded since independence, especially in terms of the number of public employees and the share of public consumption in the government budget, this growth has not usually been accompanied by a concomitant improvement in the capacity of the state to extend authority throughout the territory to deliver public services.

With few exceptions, African state institutions have failed to win popular legitimacy. As for civil society, its institutions also remain generally underdeveloped. Compared with other parts of the world, African countries possess relatively few authentic, large-scale organisations that can articulate and aggregate social interests.

Democracy can be attained only if legal texts are applied to ensure full accountability, transparency and predictability of executive authority. Invariably, this means that we need to build the capacity for political culture development even before we go to the polls for elections that may be harbingers of more violent protests. Democratisation is a process of institutional learning, in which state and societal organisations develop a new and stable set of mechanisms to manage conflict peacefully. Historically, it is clear that few authoritarian regimes successfully achieve a transition to full democratic rule on their first attempt. As has been noted by political scientists and democrats alike democratic rule institutionalises uncertainty. It can succeed if and when all the political actors accept this uncertainty as preferable to the rigidities of dictatorship.

Reporter Newspaper Interview Transcript, 2007

See interview here or https://www.academia.edu/38309309/Institutions_Political_Culture_Development_and_current_Perspectives_on_Democratisation_in_Africa_RL_Vol_X_No_12_MMVII

IFFs & the Horn of Africa Conundrum

IFFs & the Horn of Africa Conundrum

Political Corruption, Illicit Financial Flows & Livelihood Insecurity

Illicit Financial Flows to and from 148 Developing Countries: 2006-2015

2019 - Global Financial Integrity (GFI)

Respublica Litereria Public Lecture - RL Vol XIII No 411 MMXIX

Costantinos Berhutesfa Costantinos, PhD

Professor of Public Policy & Sustainable Institutional Reforms

https://addisababa.academia.edu/CostyCostantinos

Abstract

With over one billion people still living in extreme poverty, accelerating progress towards human development remains the primary goal of international development agencies in Sub-Saharan Africa. In this context, an angst-ridden rationality paralyses discourse contagious to economic growth that exhibits a stalled, self-reinforcing dynamic of stupor of a policy-strategy mix. On the popular psyche and political front, there is little credence among the elite that businesses can reverse the grinding poverty stemming from food insecurity, inflation and macro-economic imbalances. In finance literature, illicit finance is generally described as a form of illegal and is often associated with money that is illegally earned, transferred, or utilised. The movement of such types of money is made with clear intention to make it disappear from any record in the country of origin. The lecture discusses capital flight and illicit financial outflows, IFF & SDGs, some recent developments on combating IFF based on the annual Global Financial Integrity (GFI) reports. IFFs stem from the elite class of countries who felt uncertain about political stability and, therefore, increasingly looked for financial institutions in the West. Multinationals, which have operations in hundreds of locations in different parts of the world are devising creative ways to reduce or avoid corporate taxes—became a normal practice.

Stemming the tide of the impact of corruption & IFF requires the evolution of a political culture, enhancing governing institutions, oversight and regulation, enhancing executive & civil service accountability, anti-corruption & IFF agencies and watchdogs. Corruption & IFF cannot be seen in isolation, its effect permeates societies. Civil society watchdogs, consumer associations and religious leaders can build coalitions against corruption & IFF and demand greater governmental accountability. Political leadership requires intimate knowledge of public policy analysis, formulation and management and development of strategic plans and implementing them. We can identify four main aspects to this. Firstly, it is analysis, formulation and management of policy, strategy, process and organisation. Second, it is obtaining policy consensus and ensuring that the public service and ancillary organisations can actually carry out the stated policy, and not see it subverted, neglected or undermined. Finally, it is consistency and commitment: ensuring that the policy is implemented with sufficient energy to function, actually. An inspiring ‘job description’ of leaders must be not only the power over discourse but also their ability to shape morality, to determine what is socially acceptable, culturally sound and politically uplifting.  

Key words: Illicit Financial Flows (IFF), capital flight, mispricing, Africa, GFI, High Level Panel on IFF, political culture, governing institutions

See paper here or  https://www.academia.edu/38297897/The_Horn_of_Africa_Conundrum_-_Illicit_Financial_Flows_and_Livelihood_Insecurity_RL_Vol_XIII_No_411_MMXIX

Copycatting the Industrial Heartlands of Asia in Africa RL Vol XIII No 412 MMXIX

Copycatting the Industrial Heartlands of Asia in Africa

Does it work – is there an Alternative Public Policy?

Employment Dynamics in stemming the tide of Youth indignation

Ethiopia – Towards a Cogent Entrepreneurial Public Policy

Respublica Litereria Public Lecture - RL Vol XIII No 412 MMXIX

Costantinos Berhutesfa Costantinos, PhD

Professor of Public Policy & Sustainable Institutional Reforms

https://addisababa.academia.edu/CostyCostantinos

Abstract

Pundits have asserted time and again that, the widespread incidence of poverty is directly attributable to basic weaknesses of social and political leadership, rules of the game and political institutions. The central hypothesis in entrepreneurial development and employment for human security is that the relative strength of political organisations that determine the rules and institutions of the political game that are installed. It requires a plural set of political organisations, which promote and protect rules of peaceful political participation and competition. Together, institutions (plural organisations plus rules of accountability) ensure control of the state executive. The research enquiry augurs on the following key issues that speak to the challenges stated above and other challenges such as ethnicity that have become symptomatic of the root causes. It aims to uncover the causes of unemployment and underemployment in Ethiopia and point to strategic and policy trajectories the nation should follow to stem the tide of youth violence that is spreading so fast?

Hence, it reviews paradigmatic discourse in employment generation and human security, employment and human security, freedom from fear vs. freedom from want, social capital as a foundation for employment and human security, employment dynamics and social harmony, sustainable livelihoods approach and the gig economy. The discussion hones on the state’s responsibility is priming human qualities, real-time state strategy development, supporting the private sector through economic liberalisation (productive and allocative efficiency), entrepreneurship development, credit and capital markets and mainstreaming entrepreneurial employment. Legal empowerment of the poor seeks to generate new policy recommendations that will reduce poverty through secure, enforceable property and labour rights, within an enabling environment that expands legal business opportunity and access to justice. In this sense, the Ethiopian government must create an inclusive enabling system of rights, obligations and enforcements surrounding the right to property and must lay the foundation for a decent work agenda be advanced, both within the informal and formal economies. Entrepreneurial innovation and creativity in the informal economy must be channelled into the creation of decent jobs within the formal economy. Finally, Ethiopia’s unemployed need to be supported by a private sector that has access to sufficient capital. Indeed, there is no more compelling raison d'être nor a mission-objective so utterly entrenched in the preservation and, even advancement of human-kind, than good governance and leadership that can lead a social league to relate cogently to an epidemic of ignorance and hence under-employment that has spun out of control.

Key words: unemployment, entrepreneurship rights, capital, property rights, access to justice, labour rights

see post here or https://www.academia.edu/38283298/Copycatting_the_Industrial_Heartlands_of_Asia_in_Africa_RL_Vol_XIII_No_412_MMXIX.pdf

Strategic arenas for WTO accession:

Public Policy Trajectories that lure in the rewards of

Globalisation to Ethiopian Businesses

Public Lecture – Respublica Litereria - RL Vol XIII No 407 MMXIX

Costantinos Berhutesfa Costantinos, PhD

Professor of Public Policy & Sustainable Institutional Reforms

https://addisababa.academia.edu/CostyCostantinos

Association of African Public Services Commissions’ General Assembly:

Human Resource Development and the Challenges of State Capacity for Service Delivery in Africa: Improving the

Administrative-Political Interface African Union Hall, Oct 28-29, 2014, Addis Ababa, Panel II

Abstract

While Ethiopia has recorded significant achievements in GDP growth, it faces predictable armour of trials rife in poor nations with too few mechanism and wherewithal, while also wrestling with the perennial problem of sequencing policy reforms, all subject to doctrinal reins. Given the very slim boundaries for manoeuvre imposed by abject poverty, deficits and a complex interlace in its political fabric, getting the priorities right are the central issues to be addressed. Using comparative analyses with other African nations that have acceded to WTO accords, the lecture delves into impact of WTO accession on businesses and the requisite preparatory basis of a reform pedestal on which the nation can be a winner in this game. Findings of the research undergird eloquent testimony of complexity and uncertainty theories and func­tioning economic models that Ethiopia can emulate, not only to accede to WTO revised accession regimes, but also to compete successfully in the global arena; underpinning the fact that this can be complex, when reforms are subject to ideological therapy. Hence, managed restructuring of the public sector, establishing institutional capacity for policy analysis, formulation and coordination, regulatory capacity, advancing fiscal sustainability are gleaned as a panacea for change and transformation. Creating a merit based and metric civil service is a basic requirement for competing in the WTO arena to achieve higher allocative and productive efficiency, augmenting private sector share, improving public sector financial health and PPPs.

Key words: WTO, Ethiopia, state right sizing, PPP, meritocracy, markets, private sector, regulation

See paper here or https://www.academia.edu/38213587/Ethiopia_-_Strategic_trajectories_for_WTO_accession_-_AAPSC_Lecture_RL_Vol_XIII_No_407_MMXIX

Does Africa has the ability to Pay IFI’s & Bilateral Loans? RL Vol XIII No 395 MMXIX

Africa’s Debt Sustainability

Does Africa has the ability to Pay IFI’s & Bilateral Loans?

Public Lecture – Respublica Litereria - RL Vol XIII No 395 MMXIX

Costantinos Berhutesfa Costantinos, PhD

Professor of Public Policy & Sustainable Institutional Reforms

https://addisababa.academia.edu/CostyCostantinos

Abstract

Africa is facing a looming debt crisis from International Financial Institutions (IFI) and bilateral lenders. Almost 40% of sub-Saharan African countries are in danger of slipping into a major debt crisis according to the ODI. The IMF has recently warned that Africa is heading towards a new debt crisis, with the number of countries at high risk doubling over the past five years. The World Bank now classifies 18 countries as at high risk of debt distress, where debt-to-GDP ratios surpass 50 %. Public debt dynamics, once an esoteric subject of interest only to macroeconomists, are suddenly in vogue. Two things matter in government-debt dynamics, the variance between real interest rates and GDP growth and the primary budget balance as a percentage of GDP. Afro-China rapport is often seen as a significant part of the problem. Its critics say that major projects carried out by China in Africa are too expensive, and burden the host countries with enormous debts they can't hope to repay. US official John Bolton went further by placing Cold War-style competition at the centre of US strategy in Africa, suggesting that Africa is being misled by China’s offers of hefty loans for infrastructure projects, luring Africans into debt traps, the Chinese regime is actually aiming to foster dependency relationships as part of its quest to achieve ‘global dominance.’ US insistence that it caters for Africa’s best interests strikes many as ‘paternalistic, patronising and unnecessary.’ Studies for the past four years finds “no evidence at all”.

The Chinese government is adamant that its economic relationships with African countries are mutually beneficial and rejects suggestions that it is using debt to expand global influence. So is China really responsible for Africa's growing debt burden? A new study based on the analysis of 4,300 Chinese-funded projects in 140 countries by AidData, paints a more complicated picture. African countries received the largest proportion, 59%, of projects financed by China between 2000 and 2014. But when it comes to the actual value of projects committed China’s African partners rank fairly low on the list. China’s funds to Africa are more than the combined total of the AfDB, the EU, IFC, the World Bank and the G8 countries. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi played down concern over Africa's debts with Beijing as he arrived in Addis Abeba at the start of a four-nation Africa tour. China has funnelled cash and loans into infrastructure projects across the continent, where many African leaders consider Beijing's terms a better deal that than those offered by bilateral Western nations (AFP, 2019). It is recommended that nations enhance free movement of capital and labour, improve the private sector’s access to credit facilities and reconsider some aspects of the investment laws, managed restructuring of public sector, privatising and commercialising activities and fulfilling requirements for fiscal sustainability.

Key words: debt sustainability, Africa, China, aid, loan, infrastructure,

See paper here or  https://www.academia.edu/38184694/Does_Africa_has_the_ability_to_Pay_IFI_s_and_Bilateral_Loans_RL_Vol_XIII_No_395_MMXIX

A Faustian Pact with Neo-patrimonial Regimes RL Vol XIII No 279 MMXIX

A Faustian Pact with Neo-patrimonial Regimes

The Ordeal African Political Challengers endure in a Constricted Political Space

Respublica Litereria Public Lecture - RL Vol XIII No 279 MMXIX

Costantinos Berhutesfa Costantinos, PhD

Professor of Public Policy & Sustainable Institutional Reforms

https://addisababa.academia.edu/CostyCostantinos

Abstract

This think piece raises the tangential issues of the trajectories on the stewardship of African democratisation marked by uniquely austere organisational-strategic issues of neo-patrimonialism. Under patrimonialism there is no differentiation between the private and the public realm. Neo-patrimonialism is an amalgam of moderately coupled forms of state supremacy resulting from a coevolution of patrimonial and legal-rational bureaucratic state supremacy. Hence, the purpose of this paper is to study the key characteristics of neo-patrimonial regimes and derive methodological pathways for successful political transition into a pluralist society and polity. The research enquiry augurs on the knowledge gaps on African political transitions in nations under neo-patrimonial rule. While many African nations are bent on installing public administration and undertake regular elections the coordinates of the state are controlled to perpetuate the single party rule. Hence, the research questions augur on the following. What is the level of political culture development in Africa to ensure democratic development? What are the indicators that justify electoral quantity, quality and meaning in Africa? What can states; civil societies and the international community do to promote democracy in Africa?

The paper further discusses democratic political culture development in Africa, under whose rubrics are discussed are developmental states, market failures and neo-patrimonial rent seeking, neo-patrimonial states and citizenship in Africa, electoral trajectories in Africa political parties & elections in Africa: elections and their outcomes. The discussion focuses on quo vadis democracy in Africa, state building and nation building. All endeavours to characterise African neo-patrimonialism hinge on a fusion of the patrimonial single parties that dominate African elections (legal-rationalism) and absolute dictatorships that seeks to make sense of the (more real than imaginary) contradictions to be found in the state in Africa. When African states gained their independence from European colonial disruption, the African state had to inherit both the public and private sphere, including national development and colonial businesses. The developmentalist state that ensued has become bewildering to many, as influential strands of radical scholarship continued to question whether the ‘peripheral’ parts of an increasingly inter-connected global economy could ever hope to escape the predations of the established industrial heartlands. The failure of central planning in socialist countries pointed to government failure as more insidious than the market failure that state policies had purportedly been designed to correct. States are heretically formed through wars to extend influence of certain powerful individuals but nation building is the action undertaken by national actors to forge a sense of common nationhood, usually in order to overcome ethnic, sectarian or communal differences, counter alternate sources of identity and loyalty and to mobilise a population behind a parallel state-building project.

Key words: Neo-patrimonialism, electoral quantity, electoral quality and electoral meaning, democratic political culture, developmental states, market failures, rent seeking, state building and nation building

See paper here or http://www.academia.edu/38175569/A_Faustian_Pact_with_Neo-patrimonial_Regimes_RL_Vol_XIII_No_279_MMXIX.pdf

Ratiocinating Ethiopia’s International Relations & National Security Policy & Practice RL Vol XIII No 400 MMXIX

Ratiocinating Ethiopia’s International

Relations & National Security Policy & Practice:

The Gulf & Horn of Africa

United Nations Conference Centre (UNCC) Addis Ababa

Public Lecture - Respublica Litereria RL Vol. XIII No 400 MMXIX

Costantinos Berhutesfa Costantinos,

Professor of Public Policy & Sustainable Institutional Reforms

https://addisababa.academia.edu/CostyCostantinos

Abstract

New martial and security scenarios are evolving in the Greater Horn of Africa with Yemen as the epicentre. One may ask if the GCC incursion onto one of the most contested regions embolden the irredentist agenda of pariah states & terrorists. The philosophical underpinning of Ethiopia’s overseas, overland and national security policies must augur on activities trained at advancing a pluralist society as a prelude to structural transformation. Ethiopia needs to prime this policy in light of the turmoil in the Gulf, the Horn and internal dynamics. While the short-term de-escalation is a sine qua non, a counter narrative is obligatory that swings dialogues towards fostering viable peace that point to societies vs. states, harmony vs. animosity, assimilation vs. intolerance, rights vs. illusory stability, and hope vs. despair. The reworked foreign and national security policy must contain elements that wean the nation from an aid industry that is dying, heralding full or partial liberalisation of the economy, under adequate financial reform and regulatory environment, will spur investments and enable financ­ing the national security vision from within to ensure adequate preparedness. Locally, it will also find an answer to the growing unemployment trials for hundreds of thousands of school leaving youth, enabling a competitive, multi-channel private sector involvement in provision of major infrastructure that will provide more employment. We must adequately study the challenges stemming from Horn nations and develop with response policies, strategies & processes, developed. Threats oozing from the GCC-Yemen War are swelling to a wider trajectory that is engulfing Qatar, Iran & superpowers. Against these inscrutable humanitarian and martial imports, Ethiopia must develop strategy to cocoon itself from the fall outs. The UN Security Council must address the dangers of such an expanded conflict; using all diplomatic means to inform the GCC of the consequences of wider spark of conflict in the Horn, while stepping up the martial preparedness of Ethiopia. Finally, the Sunni-Shia divide genesis of the GCC conflict must be tempered not to creep into the Horn. Major structural reforms will undoubtedly enhance the utility of constitutional provisos. Nonetheless, to every human problem there is a tendency to find quick, nifty and wicked solutions; the answer like the glitches submits itself, seems within grasp only to elude, and appears readily doable only to resist fulfilment.

Key words: diplomacy, international relations, regional security, regional integration, GCC, Horn of Africa

See paper here or https://www.academia.edu/38172891/Ratiocinating_Ethiopia_s_Foreign_and_National_Security_Policy_and_Practice_RL_Vol_XIII_No_400_MMXIX

Is the US a ‘BENIGN’ option to China’s ‘RAPACIOUS’ conduct? RL Vol. XII No 388 MMXVIII

Africa, China and the U.S.

Is the US a ‘BENIGN’ option to China’s ‘RAPACIOUS’ conduct?

Respublica Litereria RL Vol. XII No 388 MMXVIII

Costantinos Berhutesfa Costantinos,

Lem Ethiopia, the Environment & Development Society

https://addisababa.academia.edu/CostyCostantinos

Abstract

The US has unveiled its new Africa strategy, a plan focused on furthering US interests and countering the great power competitors - China & Russia. At the Heritage Foundation in Washington on Dec. 14, 2018, John Bolton said the US will advance fair trade and commercial ties with African nations, help fight terrorism and militant violence and provide aid “efficiently and effectively. The US intends to ensure that US taxpayer dollars aren’t used to bolster corrupt leaders and human rights violators. It will seek to reconfigure or end support for unproductive, unsuccessful & unaccountable peacekeeping operations in Africa. A Washington-based expert on China-Africa relations is disputing the basis of the US new Africa policy, which depicts US practices as a benign alternative to China’s “predatory” behaviour on. By luring African governments into debt traps, China is actually aiming to foster dependency relationships as part of its quest to achieve ‘global dominance’. US officials emphasise the socially positive nature of US spending in Africa, in contrast to what is presented as China’s indifference to corruption, environmental and human rights standards and that some nations have worrisome debt levels to Beijing. However, Dr Brautigam of Johns Hopkins refutes the US’s depiction of China as a stealthy villain intent on sucking Africa’s blood. On the contrary, she argues, China does not typically make loans at high interest rates to African countries that it knows have little chance of making good on their debt. Research findings indicate that China actually varies its lending rates in accordance with its assessments of African countries’ repayment resources.

Africa’s GDP growth has surprised even the international financial Institutions but influential strands of radical scholarship continue to question whether, Africa in the fringes of an increasingly inter-connected global economy, could ever hope to bolt out of the dominance of the industrial heartlands of Asia. Even the mighty US economy has launched a trade war with China in the global imbalance of trade. Yet the fact that Ethiopia had rapidly moved to establish itself as one of Africa’s foremost economy means there is explicit evidence that, not only is rapid economic development possible outside the established Asian Tigers, but that such a processes might ultimately take on an African regional character with Africa’s billion people as a consumer base. Such intoxicating buoyancy about the Ethiopian economy and the emerging ‘Africa lions’ appears to have a solid experiential foundation, but poignantly, this highly heralded stance would need to be sublimed with, like the Asian Tigers, a deluge of exploratory capital from the China and the West. This also shoulders an invigorating rising tide of probabilities that African nations, given the reckless nature of their public administration and investment management, will have the requisite economic governance assets necessary for industrial advancement. Nevertheless, the nature of the highly domineering authoritarian party elite is just coming to the surface as what was once viewed as fervent state is now portrayed by the new Ethiopian administration as egocentric corrupt centre of power.

Key words: Africa, China bashing, John Bolton, US, aid, loans, Asian Tigers, corruption, debt

See lecture here or  https://www.academia.edu/38042045/Is_the_US_a_BENIGN_option_to_Chinas_RAPACIOUS_conduct_RL_Vol._XII_No_388_MMXVIII