Priming Public Policy to Combat Entrepreneurial Stasis in Ethiopia RL Vol XII No 317 MMXVIII

Priming Public Policy to

Combat Entrepreneurial Stasis in Ethiopia

Public Lecture - RL Vol XII No 317 MMXVIII

Costantinos Berhutesfa Costantinos, PhD

Professor of Public Policy & Sustainable Institutional Reforms

https://addisababa.academia.edu/CostyCostantinos

Abstract

Entrepreneurship and business development in a post-war/ post-command economy and under political transitions can be explained with reference to two institutional factors: institutions and policies that inform and influence the promotion of entrepreneurship & employment. The central hypothesis is that the relative strength of entrepreneurship, entrepreneurs and business organisations determines the wellbeing of the economy. They require a plural set of social and political institutions of which economic changes, downsizing government and privatisation of state owned enterprises which promote and protect rules of peaceful participation and completion in the market place.

Public policy intervention in the informal sector is argued based on some mix of equity, efficiency or political economy principles. Whatever, the basis of the argument might be there is a need for government policy intervention to promote economic growth and reduce pervasive poverty in an economy. Indeed, the socialist regime, which followed a centrally planned economic system since 1974, introduced excessive interventions and controls. After 1991, several policies were formulated and regulations promulgated relating to diverse social, economic and political issues that are hardly supportive of private sector development.

Hence, the ingredients of enabling environment for entrepreneurship development are avoidance of bureaucratic barriers, efficient and reliable infrastructure, expansion and/or establishment of financial institutions, establishment of training institutions and a healthy business-government relationship based on a stable political and regulatory climate. Grassroots businesses (small scale businesses) constitute the building blocks of entrepreneurial development anywhere in the world challenges that deserve urgent attention in developing entrepreneurial capabilities and the small scale sector in particular. These are lack of appropriate training system, lack of information and advisory service, financial constraints, lack of properly defined national policy, and that government institutions have been created to serve only the large businesses. Hence the state must focus on expansion of the role of civic associations sound and stable macroeconomic policy framework and develop programme support objectives, outputs & benchmarks to provide an enabling environment for the development and growth MSMEs, access to credit & finance, facilitation of access to other essential services needed by MSMEs, strengthen capacity of intermediary MSME support institutions, membership associations and advocacy groups to deliver quality services. The programme support to the overall programme is nationally executed within the framework of a partnership between public and entrepreneurial sector, reflected in the managerial and institutional arrangements.

Key words: entrepreneurship, employment, MSME, business organisations, public policy, partnership
See lecture here or  https://www.academia.edu/37686919/Priming_Public_Policy_to_Combat_Entrepreneurial_Stasis_in_Ethiopia_RL_Vol_XII_No_317_MMXVIII.pdf

Public Policy Trajectories for Managing the Current Account Crises RL Vol XII No 310 MMXVIII

Public Policy Trajectories for

Managing the Current Account Crises –

Ethiopia: an exploratory think piece

Public Lecture - RL Vol XII No 310 MMXVIII

Costantinos Berhutesfa Costantinos, PhD

Professor of Public Policy & Sustainable Institutional Reforms

https://addisababa.academia.edu/CostyCostantinos

Abstract

In recent years, public investment has been one of the major drivers of economic growth in Ethiopia. Government spending has doubled in just the last three years and quadrupled in the past six years. For the five-year GTP period as a whole, the sum of budgetary government spending and off-budget spending by public enterprises is programmed to reach Birr 1.26 trillion, or an average of 41% of GDP per year over five years. Ethiopia now has the highest capital expenditure share in government spending in Africa. This means that much more spending is being funnelled to capital projects and to capital equipment, rather than to recurrent expenditure (wages, operational and maintenance costs). The public investments planned for the coming five years can be seen as putting in place the necessary hardware and software needed for a modernising economy. Though Ethiopia current account balance (% of GDP) fluctuated substantially in recent years, it tended to decrease through 1997 - 2016 period ending at -11.4 % in 2016.

Strategic corporate planning is affected by competence in government’s economic management, the efficiency of the public service bureaucracy, the attitudes of influential public figures towards entrepreneurship, and the quality of public infrastructure and services. A case in point is the commercial farm sector where half a million hectares lay bare. A major paradigm shift in the management of the economy is a necessary condition, looking for new business strategies and approaches that are consistent with market economies accommodating changes whenever they take place and be able to convert such developments into opportunities to redefine their position and purpose. After passing through about four decades of economic policy crises in which it has been subjected to anti-private sector polices, Ethiopian entrepreneurs are in the early stage of revival and has not as yet regained its prominence in national development. An assessment of the private sector shows that the formal private sector is quite small with average employment figure of less than ten people per enterprise. Most depend on outdated and obsolete technology characterised by frequent breakdowns and low productivity. Hence, the discussion points improvement in public policy and strategy, fiscal & monetary management, increased import substitution and exports, and re-balancing the trade deficit.

Key words: public policy, fiscal & monetary strategy, import substitution and exports, re-balancing the trade deficit

See lecture here or   https://www.academia.edu/37858670/Public_Policy_Trajectories_for_Managing_the_Current_Account_Crises_Ethiopia_an_exploratory_think_piece

Federated Ethiopia - Stemming Demographic Trials and Resource Conflicts - ACM - RL Vol XII No 363 MMXVIII

Federated Ethiopia - Stemming

Demographic Trials and Resource Conflicts

Could these spin to Ethnic Cleansing? What are the Requisite Policy Introspection to Create an Enterprising Society and Polity? Alternative Conflict Management

Public Lecture - RL Vol XII No 363 MMXVIII

Costantinos Berhutesfa Costantinos, PhD

Chair, Lem Ethiopia, the Environment & Development Society

https://addisababa.academia.edu/CostyCostantinos

Abstract

Ethiopia’s population is estimated by projection 107.5 million, while total fertility rate is at 4 in 2018. While population explosion could be a dividend, the economic carrying capacity that has resulted in human insecurity. Ethiopia has seen the highest number of people forced to flee their homes within their country in the first half of 2018, according to the IDMC report on global displacement. It beggars belief that 1.4 million people fleeing violence isn't making global headlines. The world has turned a blind eye to Ethiopia, warned Nigel Tricks, Regional Director of the Norwegian Refugee Council. Families we've met who have fled fighting are living in dire conditions, and dismal international funding is being channelled to help them (Reliefweb, 2018).

Despite the success the new charismatic Prime Minister Abiy, some regions are locked up in a round of vindictive ethnic violence. Hundreds of thousands of displaced Ethiopians are caught between ethnic violence and shadowy politics. Ethiopian police force has uncovered mass grave with 200 bodies along the border between the strife-torn Oromia and Somali regions. Critics point to the formal transition activity that constituted the central instruments of ‘democratisation’ - the unlimited right of any nation, nationality or people to self‑determination, including the right to secession. More than ideology, it is the everyday social and economic life, which has come under stress and strain in the highly ethnicized political order. For many, particularly, but by no means exclusively, the city elite, the values, sentiments and symbols of national unity they cherish and take for granted have suddenly become objects of controversy and deconstruction. Many often grumble at their country having to endure another “social experiment” after seventeen years under dictatorial Marxist-Leninist rule. The relevant policy instruments of the state to this discussion include the National Population Policy of Ethiopia (where between the policy statement and operationalisation, a concrete implementation action plan to guide it is required that should deal with questions such as resource requirements, timetable. The food security policy is consistent with current food-security theory. However the lack of specific recognition of the need to control the population growth rate to achieve food self-sufficiency merits further consideration. The land use and land tenure policies, land use planning and land tenure have been hotly debated. These are extremely complex issues with a far-reaching impact on the future of Ethiopia. The lecture proposes policy review and alternative conflict management approaches derive from several basic premises about the nature of conflict, change and power. It is essential to launch a truth commission. Efforts must focus in creating an enterprising society.  

Key words: ethnicity, demographic dividend, livelihood security, alternative conflict management, policy review

See paper here or https://www.academia.edu/37836799/Federated_Ethiopia_Stemming_Demographic_Trials_and_Resource_Conflicts_ACM_RL_Vol_XII_No_363_MMXVIII

Reining in a ‘Million’ Cavaliers of the Millenarian Apocalypse RL Vol XII No 360 MMXVIII

Quo Vadis ‘pillaged’ Ethiopia:

Reining in a ‘Million’ Cavaliers of a Millenarian Apocalypse

The First Decade of the Third Ethiopian Millennium Heralds

Impunity, Grand Corruption & Accountability

Public Lecture - RL Vol XII No 360 MMXVIII

Costantinos Berhutesfa Costantinos, PhD

Chair, Ethiopian Scouts, Professor of Public Policy & Sustainable Institutional Reforms

https://addisababa.academia.edu/CostyCostantinos

Abstract

             An “honest, incorruptible machinery can increase economic efficiency by greatly reducing corruption. A major problem inherent in the system is the extreme weakness of the social movements and their failure to develop coherent strategies for promoting broad based and well organised citizenry. The huge public sector has burdened the Ethiopian civil service with literally all human development services delivered by the state but has several challenges– remuneration, post adjustment, etc. Based on a desk study of the literature assembled, the research questions augur on the following - What is the extent of corruption in Ethiopia’s developmental state? What is the impact of corruption on society and polity? What needs to be done to stem the tide of corruption and impunity? Looking at the emerging breaking-after-breaking news of the past two weeks, the Ethiopian developmental state has been transformed into a kleptocratic state. “A year ago, many Ethiopians would not have dared to imagine the spectacle they are being treated to right now, as the government intensifies the crackdown on corrupt officials and people it alleges have carried out gross human rights violations. The country has watched in disbelief - and then cheered as former high-ranking and powerful military and intelligence officials have been arrested on live television, handcuffed while surrounded by heavily armed security personnel and bundled into police vehicles. Times have indeed changed” (Igunza, 2018).

           Leadership, political will and public support are essential to the success of stemming any threats of corruption, and that the causes and not just the consequences of these threats have to be addressed. Upholding the rule of law is important to guarantee protection of human rights, ensure judicial predictability. It creates a climate conducive to domestic private sector activity, foreign direct investment and enforce adherence to formal rules of behaviour. Watchdogs are significant components of this strategy can help increase integrity and transparency. Creating a merit based and metric civil service is a basic requirement for limiting any threats of corruption and rebuilding public confidence. A culture of professionalism needs to be created and thus, incentives as well as sanctions have to be employed. Remuneration is obviously a factor, but opportunities for career advancement based on merit are important mechanisms to instil a sense of professional pride. While the prime role of the state in advancing the economy is well recognised, reducing state involvement in the economy, streamlining the discretionary decision-making authority of its officials will reduce the threats of corruption. Reforms can eliminate state monopolies, economic distortions that facilitate them and improve accountability. Stemming the tide of the impact of corruption focuses on the evolution of a political culture, building rules and institutions, enhancing governing institutions: leadership and human quality development think tanks and technology; oversight and regulation: the legislature, the justice system, state corporate strategic and business plans: capacity for strategic harmonisation and civil society & media watchdogs

Key words: corruption, impunity, civil society & media watchdogs, state corporate strategic and business plans

See paper here or https://www.academia.edu/37822702/Quo_Vadis_pillaged_Ethiopia_Reining_in_a_Million_Cavaliers_of_a_Millenarian_Apocalypse

Civil Service Salaries & The Wages-Price Spiral, Devaluation, Inflation & Livelihood Security RL Vol XII No 345 MMXVIII

Civil Service Salaries &

The Wages-Price Spiral, Devaluation, Inflation & Livelihood Security

Public Lecture Res Publica Litereria – RL Vol XII No 345 MMXVIII

Costantinos Berhutesfa Costantinos, PhD

Professor of Public Policy & Sustainable Institutional Reforms

https://addisababa.academia.edu/CostyCostantinos

Abstract

While the dismal civil service salary has been an Achilles heel in the development of good governance structures, questions have been raised if a civil service salary increment will spin the inflationary pressures out of control (price &wages spiral). On the other hand, the continuous, stealth and surprise devaluations fall short of addressing the problem, which reflects numerous and complex factors. The National Bank can have various instruments to promote price stability and eco­nomic growth, where price stability, growth and export competi­tiveness are all concerns, but it is useful to consider the issue in terms of the monetary conditions index. The banking system must be functioning efficiently - taking care of the money market and hence the credit market needs of private sectors. An efficient and a development-oriented private sector provides the nourishment, which markets require to grow and function effectively. Markets themselves provide the credit ingredients, which the private sector requires to grow, expand and contribute to development. Thus, there is a reciprocal and mutually productive relationship between the private sector and credit and capital markets. Full or partial privatisation of units providing services that would be more efficiently provided in a competitive, multi-channel environment, force account activities, and private sector involvement in provision of major infrastructure and concession arrangements will provide more employment. Progress in information systems on micro-economic behaviour including labour market networks, and the specific requirements of technology transfer and adaptation are all preconditions for sound policy and strategy analysis, formulation and management. Planning and policy-making are characterised by on-going dialogue between government and different groups of economic actors, regular exchange of electronic data and information on specific needs and requirements. Primarily it is important to consider what Ethiopia’s bulk imports (petroleum, food – beer malt, sugar, wheat, etc. fertilizer, machinery, spare parts, raw materials and what Ethiopia exports (Coffee, Sesame, Kat, oil seeds, etc…). What is the wisdom of devaluating the currency when the exports are limited? Do they hurt the populace by a price spiral that goes out of control for citizens? There is simply no alternative to the establishment of sound institutional capacity in government for real-time strategy development, sensitivity analysis, policy coordination, and attention to the details of implementation. Strategic objectives must be clearly defined and specific measures made consistent with overall polices of a good national economic management. Provision of incentives to entrepreneurs must be subject to periodic review, continuation, and expansion made conditional upon perfor­mance criteria established in advance.

Key words: price &wages spiral, devaluation, inflation, monetary conditions index, credit & capital markets, 

See paper here or  http://www.academia.edu/37743956/Civil_Service_Salaries_and_Wages-Price_Spiral_Devaluation_Inflation_and_Livelihood_Security_RL_Vol_XII_No_345_MMXVIII

Ending Famine Emergencies in the Horn of Africa Vol XII No 348 MMXVIII

The Horn of Africa Initiative

Ending Famine Emergencies in the Horn of Africa

Partnership Consultative Meeting

15-16, Nov. 2011, Kempinski Palace Hotel,

Republic of Djibouti

Inter-Governmental Authority on Development

Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Sudan/South Sudan, Somalia and Uganda

Report of the Consultative Meeting

Public Lecture Res Publica Litereria – RL Vol XII No 348 MMXVIII

Costantinos Berhutesfa Costantinos, PhD

Professor of Public Policy & Sustainable Institutional Reforms

https://addisababa.academia.edu/CostyCostantinos

Abstract

The objectives of the IGAD Partnership Consultative Meeting on the Horn of Africa Initiative - Ending Famine Emergencies in the Horn of Africa are to share information on the initiative: its origins, vision, issues and challenges and potential areas of intervention, currently and potentially available sources, grant and loan funds and amounts and propose a road map for institutional coordination to move the initiatives forward and agree implementation modalities and determine an array of roles and responsibilities and preliminary configuration of stakeholders, partners, IFIs, etc.  The expected outcome of the Partnership Consultative Meeting is partnership agreement for sustainable livelihoods in the Horn: A shared understanding of the initiative (vision, objectives, scope, and strategy) and roadmap and modalities for implementing shared vision, roles and responsibilities, agreed institutional arrangement. The IGAD-led partnership outcomes for ending drought triggered emergencies and promoting sustainable livelihoods in the Horn entails developing.

The Heads of State and Government of IGAD, EAC and South Sudan, meeting in Nairobi, Kenya on 9 Sept 2011, at the Summit on the Horn of Africa Crisis; undertook to enhance the following. First is provision of timely and actionable early warning information to all, ensure efficient utilisation of water resources in the region under existing and future co-operative frameworks. Further, it is to promote ecosystem rehabilitation and management, encourage the shift from reliance on rain-fed agriculture, and launch regional projects to address the underlying causes of vulnerability in drought-prone areas, reform emergency humanitarian response to enhance resilience and long-term solutions. The priority areas for long-term investment are long-term investment in sustainable management of water for crop, livestock production and domestic use; sustainable use of natural resources including rangelands; securing pastoral assets and production systems; market-related infrastructure and financial services; and new approaches on conflict-sensitivity and disaster risk reduction.

Key words: famine, early warning, natural resources, investment, ecosystem, livelihood security

See paper here or https://www.academia.edu/37763230/Ending_Famine_Emergencies_in_the_Horn_of_Africa_Vol_XII_No_348_MMXVIII

Awakening from the Centenary Slumber that is wrecking Mother Earth L Vol XII No 350, MMXVIII

Awakening from the Centenary

Slumber that is wrecking Mother Earth

Discourse on Polices & Political Will

The most remarkable feature of this historical moment on Earth is not that we are on the way to destroying the world – we have actually been on the way for quite a while, we are beginning to wake up, as from a millennia-long sleep, to a whole new relationship to our world and each other (Joanna Macy)

Public Lecture - RL Vol XII No 350, MMXVIII

Costantinos Berhutesfa Costantinos, PhD

Chair, Lem Ethiopia, the Environment & Deve. Society,

Professor of Public Policy & Sustainable Institutional Reforms

https://addisababa.academia.edu/CostyCostantinos

Abstract

Scientists on the Nobel Prize-winning IPCC point to a global temperature rise of 1.5°C as a threshold the planet cannot cross without seeing the worst effects of climate change. Yet according to the U.N. organisation’s latest report, temperatures have already risen 1°C as a result of human activity, and the planet could pass the 1.5°C threshold as early as 2030 if greenhouse gas emissions continue at the current rate. We need a plan to save us, we have a short window of time and a huge responsibility.’ African Member States are urged to strengthen their policies and interventions for effective climate change adaptation planning. In this regard, particular emphasis should be placed on increasing land-use efficiency, water-use efficiency and access, and agricultural productivity, with a view to enhancing climate resilience, especially for food production and security in Africa. With the involvement of civil society, they are urged to develop strategies to advance low carbon development, taking into account the specific needs and context of African countries…. They are urged to strengthen regional cooperation to enable countries to focus on areas of comparative advantage and to formulate and implement supportive policies that promote access to affordable, reliable and clean energy services to reduce poverty, improve health, increase productivity and promote economic development.

‘The main difference between possibility and impossibility is just political will”. The consequences of failure would be immense and affect countries and their citizens in every corner of the globe. But the worst toll would be inflicted on developing countries that lack the resources to adapt and communities located in vulnerable regions like coastlines, small islands and particularly dry regions.  ‘We need a ‘climate just’ pathway’. ‘The risks posed by global warming in excess of 1.5°C are large and unpredictable and in some cases irreversible.’ In confronting the imperatives of political will, nothing is more challenging for our polities than the strategic co-ordination of diverse global and local elements, relations and activities within themselves, nor has anything greater potential for enabling them achieve successful transitions to democracy. The concern here is not so much the number and diversity of ideas, values and opinions allowed to gain currency during transition as modes of their competitive and co-operative articulation.

Key words: climate change, Paris agreement, IPCC, Africa, desertification, climate bonds, carbon-tax-credit

See lecture here or use this link  https://www.academia.edu/37727654/Awakening_from_the_Centenary_Slumber_that_is_wrecking_Mother_Earth_Discourse_on_Polices_and_Political_Will_RL_Vol_XII_No_350_MMXVIII

Yemen, a Tribute to the Demise of Global Governing Bodies, International Law and Universal Rights & Public Policy RL Vol XII No 335 MMXVIII

Yemen, a Tribute to the Demise of

Global Governing Bodies, International Law and Universal Rights & Public Policy

Public lecture RL Vol XII No 335 MMXVIII

Costantinos Berhutesfa Costantinos, PhD

President, Lem Ethiopia: Environment Development Society

https://addisababa.academia.edu/CostyCostantinos

Abstract

Yemen was for centuries the centre of civilisation and wealth on the Arabian Peninsula. The Romans referred to the area as Arabia Felix, or Happy Arabia. Its once fertile plains were irrigated with the aid of the great Ma'rib Dam built around 700 B.C. by the biblical Sheba and chronicles speak of the land as Frankincense country, whose cities brimmed with all sorts of goods and provided the major link between the Mediterranean world and the fabled Indian ports. Nevertheless, there are views that some inaccurately speculate that the conflict in Yemen is mostly the result of a proxy geopolitical war between Iran and Saudi Arabia in the broader Middle East. However, Iran’s role and influence in the conflict have been greatly exaggerated. The Houthis have been around for some time, and to their credit, they tried a number of non-violent approaches to former governments for years, in an attempt to end discrimination against their community. Eventually they were compelled to resort to violence where the Yemeni government, already under al Qaeda siege, was an easy target”. A military intervention was launched by Saudi Arabia in 2015, leading a coalition of nine African and Middle East countries, to influence the outcome of the Yemeni Civil War in favour of the government of President Hadi. Today, a military alliance battling Houthi rebels negotiated secret deals and recruited al-Qaeda fighters. There is now a clear and present danger of an imminent and great big famine and cholera engulfing the country.

Baron

Jamal Khashoggi’s murder could have major repercussions for Saudi Arabia’s crown prince, MbS and for the entire kingdom (Wright, 2018). A solution in Yemen’s two and-a-half year-old civil war will likely come through military rather than political means, the country’s Saudi-backed president said, blaming the Iran-backed Al Houthis of obstructing chances of peace, but Egypt was humiliated and bankrupted in the sixties in its Yemen intervention. Hence, others say it is necessary to initiate an immediate ceasefire with the help of the international community, and start the peace negotiations in a multilateral context in order to establish an inclusive government in the war-torn country. On the other side, the Houthis argue that a negotiated settlement should begin with the formation of a national reconciliation government that includes the Houthis and those aligned with Hadi that would oversee military disengagement and the rebuilding of a single national military under its command. Peace would begin with a political settlement and then proceed to military disengagement.  After the Saudi-led coalition declared the entire Saada Governorate a military target, the UN and Human Rights Watch said that air strikes by the Saudi-led coalition on Saada city in Yemen were in breach of international law. On 1 July 2015 UN declared a level-three emergency – the highest UN emergency level – for a period of six months. Yemen is now a tribute to a 21^st century catastrophe of international law, public policy and global governance institutions. To reduce this action to some sadistic aim is too simplistic; there is a sense of frustration in the Gulf and the West seems to be tending to its vexation with oxygen that is fuelling the inferno. It is morally wrong, but morality is an alien concept in Arab polity and indeed, in any of the systems that claim the moral high ground to change it.

Key words: Yemen, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Houthis, Hadi, Saleh, famine, cholera, international law,

See lecture here or  https://www.academia.edu/37687180/Yemen_a_Tribute_to_the_Demise_of_Global_Governing_Bodies_International_Law_and_Universal_Rights_and_Public_Policy
Cartoon credit - 'Weighed in the balance' Cartoon by Ella Baron