The Afro-Arab Enclave – A Cataclysmic Adventure in the Making RL Vol XIII No 579 MMIX

The Afro-Arab Enclave Conflicts -

A Cataclysmic Armageddon in the Making

Balochistan, Egypt, Emirates, Iran, Qatar, Saudi, Sudan, Turkey, Yemen

Sustainable Peace in the Middle East will come not because of a

Martial Confrontation, but good old Diplomacy that will bring Détente amongst the “Shia-Sunni family” and “Arab-Israel Proxy” Hostilities

Public lecture – Respublica Litereria - RL Vol XIII No 579 MMXIX

Costantinos Berhutesfa Costantinos, PhD

Former Chairperson of the African Union Anti-corruption Advisory Board &

Professor of Public Policy and Sustainable Institutional Reforms

https://addisababa.academia.edu/CostyCostantinos

Abstract

Contemporary geopolitical episodes in the Middle East have, once more, made it the centre of global attention with the rising tensions turning The Gulf into a maritime powder keg. Recent events leading to the tension are marked by downing of a US drone, seizure of ships in the Gibraltar straight and Gulf of Hormuz and tanker Kokuka Courageous bombed. The roots of all tis conflicts stem from the cancellation of the Iran nuclear deal, the Iran- Saudi (Shia-Sunni) standoff, the Yemen Armageddon and the omnipresent Israeli-Palestinian quest for peace. Baloch National Movement’s, recent militant attacks on Iranian, Chinese and Pakistani targets and air raids in Syria in the country's last rebel-held enclave have killed and displaced thousands. The roots of the Shia-Sunni animosity goes to the Battle of Karbala was fought in central Iraq in 680 AD, with violent clash that went a long way to settling the question of The Prophet Mohammed's succession. Until recently, the two groups seemed to co-exist within an awkward kind of avoidance, but, when it comes to operational matters, especially against Israel, these groups have no qualms about tactical cooperation. Iran, whose 1979 revolution put political Islam on the modern map, vows to destroy Israel, a sequel to The Great Arab Revolt of 1936, a nationalist uprising by Arabs in Mandate Palestine.

The UN & US have proposed close to a dozen Israeli-Palestinians peace plans since the seventies. The two state solution has been the centrepiece of U.S. Middle East policy but efforts to implement it have so far miscarried. President Trump’s new Middle East Plan, according to Jared Kushner, senior advisor, is based on four basic principles: freedom of religion, freedom in life and professional opportunities, freedom of movement and freedom of political opinions, as well as Safety and Security, but dead on arrival by the Palestinians. Hence a unilateral solution by Israel to operationalise this along the lines of the Oslo Accords, has been proposed if Israel is comfortable with it, since the US and Israel have an upper hand in all this which the Palestinians and the UN must endorse to clear the stalemate. Sudan has appointed a new prime minister as the country embarks on a three-year transition to civilian rule, but the Middle East has become more violent and more radicalised by asymmetric conflicts. The paper proposes détente in the Saudi-UAE-Egypt axis vs. the Iran-Qatar- Turkey axis, because détente saved the world form a nuclear war between the US and USSR that began tentatively in 1971 and took decisive form in Moscow, May 1972. The late 1960s and early 1970s would see the most productive period of détente. An immediate détente in the Middle East will go a long way to sustain its prosperity and the Gulf Monarchies.

Key words:  détente, Saudi-UAE-Egypt axis vs. the Iran-Qatar- Turkey axis, Israel, Palestine,

"Global Powers have thrown a monkey wrench into a schisms-laden constituency with callous intensity. They continue to stock the inferno with weapons of mass destruction, fuelling the schisms and asymmetric conflicts with thermobaric incendiaries that have converted the cradle of civilisation into phantom polities. An immediate détente will go a long way to sustain the prosperity of the oil rich nations and the Gulf Monarchies".

See paper here or copy this link to your browser  https://www.academia.edu/40175009/The_Afro-Arab_Enclave_A_Cataclysmic_Adventure_in_the_Making_RL_Vol_XIII_No_579_MMIX