Contemporary Socio-Economic & Political Transition in Ethiopia & the Horn of Africa RL Vol XIII No 451 MMXIX

Interview transcript - Herald with Costantinos

Contemporary Socio-Economic & Political Transition in Ethiopia & the Horn of Africa

Public Lecture – Respublica Litereria - RL Vol XIII No 451 MMXIX

Costantinos Berhutesfa Costantinos, PhD

Former Chairperson of the AU Anti-Corruption Advisory Board

https://addisababa.academia.edu/CostyCostantinos

Summary

April 2018 – April 2019 was an eventful year for Ethiopia. PM Abiy has thrown a blowlamp into the heart of Horn of Africa and Ethiopian society and polity, nerve-wracking the terms of engagement of martial titans and thrown the centre of gravity of the Red Sea arena of war into unprecedented peace trajectory. The way he deconstructed the power monsters of the Horn region is purely ontological. Under PM Abiy, his ruling party has widened the political space allowing opposition and opponents to operate. The media has seen a renaissance. The Horn of Africa is moving towards peace and reconciliation have been started. PM Abiy’s recent speech at Davos indicated a major shift from his party’s ideological leanings. While the Ethiopian economy is growing remarkably, a shift in macroeconomic policy can decisively contribute to high growth rates and new margins of manoeuvre for policies. The glittery feature of such percentile growth is that the contribution of real cost reduction recorded is higher than in any of the well-performing emerging markets. A state model that accords primacy to macroeconomic stability notwithstanding; Ethiopia’s growth potential is yet to be mobilised. Structural transformation will in effect involve unchaining self-reinforcing policy trajectories and a coordinated change in the composition and level of public and private sector investments.

Historically, Ethiopia has been the target of attack for religious and territorial gain reasons. Dervish, Mahadists and Italian invaders have challenged Ethiopia’s Emperors. The armies of Yohannes on the morning of 16 Nov 1875 destroyed the Egyptians. They tried again to invade from the north, but were again defeated at the battle of Guræ in March 1876. On 7 Dec 1895, Ethiopia gained her victory at Amba Alage, Mequelle on 21 Jan 1986 and at Adwa on 1st of March 1896 against Italy. The fact that the entire Ethiopian people of all nations and nationalities fought against external invaders are great historical narratives that are vital for good citizenship today. Such a history does not lend itself to the kind of ethnicization and fragmentation that we witness today. The Clarion call of Ethiopianness that PM Abiy has repeatedly asserted must be respected. If this is not a justification to teach Ethiopian history, a clinic of human experience and of informed citizenship, then what is? The key to building enduring democracy is the existence of strong, viable, and assertive opposition; whose organisations give structure to the representation of interests of a diverse body of the populace. The hallmark of a competitive election is that it creates uncertainty about who will hold power in its aftermath. Precisely because multiparty elections threaten incumbents with the potential loss of their power, they generate strong incentives for current office-holders to exploit available resources to prevent their replacement by challengers. It proposes itself, and seems within reach, only to evade and appears readily realistic only to resist insight.

Keywords: Ethiopia, Political Transition, Economic Liberlisation, Abiy Ahmed, 

see interview here or https://www.academia.edu/38832322/Contemporary_Socio-Economic_and_Political_Transition_in_Ethiopia_and_the_Horn_of_Africa_RL_Vol_XIII_No_451_MMXIX

The Metamorphosis of the Daesh-wrought Territorial Caliphate RL Vol XIII No 446 MMXIX

The Metamorphosis of the

Daesh-wrought Territorial Caliphate

What & where is the Culmination of the Middle East Turmoil?

Public Lecture - Respublica Litereria - RL Vol XIII No 446 MMXIX

Costantinos Berhutesfa Costantinos, PhD

Professor of Public Policy & Sustainable Institutional Reforms

https://addisababa.academia.edu/CostyCostantinos

Abstract

In Syria, more than half a million people have already died and eleven million (half the population) have been displaced, because when protests occurred in early 2011, the Syrian government reacted with unnecessary violence. When the government used deadly force to crush the dissent, protests demanding the president's resignation erupted nationwide. The unrest spread and the crackdown intensified. Opposition supporters took up arms, first to defend themselves and later to rid their areas of security forces. Mr Assad vowed to crush what he called foreign-backed terrorism. The violence rapidly escalated and Syria descended into civil war. In 2014, the forces of the Daesh shocked the world by seizing Mosul, the second largest city in Iraq. The government in Baghdad watched helplessly as its security forces crumbled and tens of thousands of residents fled their homes. Less than three weeks later, Daesh proclaimed itself the Caliphate—that is, the legitimate successor to the state led by the Prophet Muhammad—thus casting its victory as the start of a new era of Islamic ascendancy. The rise of Daesh electrified Islamist extremists around the world. Soon a rising chorus of voices at home would be demanding decisive military action to roll back Daesh. Indeed, Daesh and Hezbollah are the two most important Arab non-state militaries that demonstrated a clear superiority in their battlefield competence over the vast majority of Arab militaries since WWII. Warfare is a competitive activity, and to win you do not have to be good, just better than your opponent is. One of the most important advantages that Daesh fighters bring to the battlefield is their commitment. Moreover, Daesh as an organisation understands the military value of such fervour and consciously works to instil and enhance it. Daesh “deems military training of secondary importance as compared to the effort that it puts into cultivating the combatants’ desire to fight (Pollack, 2019). Now that Daesh has been cleared of its territory, is it defeated? The paper recommends the way forward.

Key words: Daesh, ISIS, Syria, Terrorism, Caliphate, Iraq, Iran, Sunni, Shia, ontological security

See paper here or https://www.academia.edu/38669023/The_Metamorphosis_of_the_Daesh-wrought_Territorial_Caliphate_What_and_where_is_the_Culmination_of_the_Middle_East_Turmoil

‘Deep State’ Coup – Quo Vadis Sudan RL Vol XIII No 450 MMXIX

‘Deep State’ Coup – Quo Vadis Sudan

The Sudanese ‘Deep Sate’ must be tempered by a Civilian Transitional State to Build Democratic Rules & Institutions

Respublica Litereria Public Lecture - RL Vol XIII No 450 MMXIX

Costantinos Berhutesfa Costantinos, PhD

Professor of Public Policy & Sustainable Institutional Reforms

https://addisababa.academia.edu/CostyCostantinos

Abstract

An AU Technical Mission on Darfur was headed by the author to review what brought about Sudan’s conflicts. What are the impact of these conflicts and ripple effects in the Horn of Africa? What are the strategic options for enhancing human security and prospects for democratic governance and resolving ethnic conflicts? The atrocities that citisens and IDPs refer to in Darfur and elsewhere are all too evident to demand any major explanation and too terrifying and menacing to believe. On 13 Nov 2018, a report was released by the IMF on the state of consumer subsidies in Sudan to protect low-income families, was expensive, ineffective and counterproductive. The protests against al-Bashir removing subsidies sparked massive nation-wide protests. The string of protests, beginning in 2018, show no signs of tapering off and may serve as a more serious challenge to the rule of the ‘deep state’ than ever before. In highlighting the uniqueness of this round of protests, some observers have pointed to these protests’ longevity as well as a number of other factors such as apparent rifts within al-Bashir’s own political party and the unity between opposition groups against the ruling regime. The will of the Sudanese youth is unmasking a violent regime a revolution has begun.

Ironically, the demonstrations have fuelled fears that a belated Arab Spring might overtake Sudan, reminiscent of the popular uprisings eight years ago. Some argue it dawn mayhem and destruction as in Syria, Libya and Yemen. The consequences could be the “African Spring” of non-electoral regime changes might suddenly spread to other countries on the continent after surprisingly succeeding in two of its most security-prone and rigid states that many observers had previously thought would never respond to “grassroots” pressure. Sudan will continue to occupy an ultra-strategic position but it will likely continue its “balancing” act between GCC, Russia, China, and US.

To avoid the Libya, Syria and Yemen scenario, Sudan should build democratic institutions that can be explained with reference to two institutional factors political organisations and political rules. The central hypoth­esis is that the relative strength of political agencies determines the rules of the political game that are installed. Democ­ratisation requires a plural set of political organisations, which promote and protect rules of peaceful political participation and competition. The AU must act to prevent a military state in Sudan.

see paper here or  https://www.academia.edu/38792480/_Deep_State_Coup_Quo_Vadis_Sudan_RL_Vol_XIII_No_450_MMXIX

Dents in a Deep State’s Fiscal & Financial Meta Strategy & Public Policy RL Vol XIII No 449 MMXIX

Dents in a Deep State’s

Fiscal & Financial Meta Strategy & Public Policy

Stemming the tide of Macroeconomic Imbalances in Ethiopia

GHBS After Hours Business – lecture

Public Lecture – Respublica Litereria - RL Vol XIII No 449 MMXIX

Costantinos Berhutesfa Costantinos, PhD

Chair, Lem Ethiopia, Environment & Development Society

https://addisababa.academia.edu/CostyCostantinos

Abstract

The IMF main concerns stem from trajectories that threaten Ethiopia’s macroeconomic stability. Indeed, the state still has snags in demarcating its governing and mercantile roles, resulting in significantly tinsel fiscal behaviour, added to the chronic deficit in economic orderliness, tainted by graft and influence peddling. Hence the enquiry augurs on the main causes of macroeconomic instability, the debt distress, shortage of foreign exchange, reduce the impact of roaring inflation that has undermined livelihoods. The statement of the problem points to the fact that as far as economic matters are concerned, in one sense or other, profits are evil, and that the search for profits involves, in one form or another, the exploitation of the rest of society. The idea that market forces could be trusted to bring about a socially desirable outcome is given almost no credibility at all by the Ethiopian elite. The financial sector remains closed, much less developed that has contributed to the current capital crises. The state until recently remains so strongly opposed to liberalisation because the development of a viable domestic sector will be clouded by foreign banks that will also skew credit allocation towards large-scale enterprises and will “cherry pick” the best companies. Ethiopia’s financial sector remains closed. It has no capital market and very limited informal investing in shares of private companies. A series of financial sector reforms has been introduced since 1994, when private banks were allowed to be re-established. However, the large state-owned banks continue to dom­inate the market.

Credit and capital markets are a viable option for financing social and economic development on a sustained basis. These comprise financial institutions, which provide the intermediation processes, facilitate the mobilisation of savings and channelling these into investment. The liquidity provides opportunities for small and big savers to choose to hold their savings in either cash or securities or both. They are vital to foreign direct investment and indirect investment. Given the internationalisation of capital markets, stock exchanges can facilitate debt-equity swaps & other debt conversion schemes. The allocative function is to mobilise limited capital resources among numerous competing alternative uses that can be critical in deter­mining the overall growth of the economy; in effect, providing means for securing funds for com­panies to expand and modernise, accelerate industrialisation and provide liquidity for the investment funds, a measure of confidence in the economy and serve as an important barometer for the economy through price mechanisms. They provide industrial management with some idea of the current cost of capital. This can be important in determining the level and rate of investment; acting as reliable medium for broadening the ownership base of public companies, as small investors have opportunities to invest in privatised enterprises.

Key words: devaluation, inflation, balance of payments, liberalisation, financial institutions, financial interme­diation, credit and capital markets,

see paper here or https://www.academia.edu/38826938/Dents_in_a_Deep_State_s_Fiscal_and_Financial_Meta_Strategy_and_Public_Policy_RL_Vol_XIII_No_449_MMXIX

see presentation here or https://prezi.com/weerpuka2ont/?utm_campaign=share&utm_medium=copy

Potential Benefit & Forthcoming Imperatives of the AfCFTA - Interview Transcript RL Vol XIII No 448a MMXIX

AfCFTA Interview Transcript - Xinhua

Potential Impact & Forthcoming Imperatives of the AfCFTA

Africa Continental Free Trade Agreement

Lessons from other free trade agreements in other parts of the world, navigating the political and economic differences, poor infrastructure, stability, synchronising AfCFTA with other continental integration schemes

Public Lecture – Respublica Litereria - RL Vol XIII No 448a MMXIX

Costantinos Berhutesfa Costantinos, PhD

Former Chairperson of the AU Anti-Corruption Advisory Board

Professor of Public Policy & Sustainable Institutional Reforms

https://addisababa.academia.edu/CostyCostantinos

Summary

One of the Key Decisions of the 32nd Ordinary Session of the Assembly of the African Union (January 2019) is that it endorsed the recommendations of African Union Ministers of Trade on Template on Tariff Liberalisation which will be used by Member States in preparing the AfCFTA Schedules of Tariff Concessions. The agreement was endorsed on March 21, 2018, by 44 African countries in Kigali, Rwanda. Free trade is an economic practice whereby countries can import and export goods without fear of government intervention. African countries can benefit from free trade by increasing their amount of or access to economic resources. Free trade agreements ensure small nations can obtain the economic resources needed to produce consumer goods or services. Free trade can improve the quality of life for a nation's citizens. Importing from neighbouring countries ensures a constant flow of goods that are readily available for consumption. Better foreign relations is usually an unintended result of free trade. African countries can also use free trade agreements to improve their military strength and their internal infrastructure, as well as to improve politically. African countries can use free trade to improve their production efficiency.

Infrastructure plays a key role in economic growth and poverty reduction. Conversely, the lack of infrastructure affects productivity and raises production and transaction costs, which hinders growth by reducing the competitiveness of businesses and the ability of governments to pursue economic and social development policies. The potential pitfalls are a major potential challenge in harmonising Africa’s heterogeneous politics and economies under one agreement is the wide variation that exists in their levels of development. Other challenges are through political, security, economic and cultural ties, former colonisers maintain a tight stranglehold in Francophone Africa, both to serve their interests and maintain a last bastion of imperial prestige. The complexities of the regional integration, the assumptions that are made on the basis of perceived necessities or demand underlie the question how does African states and the private sector go about to bring that change? Without comprehensive policy-making and preferential treatment for Africa’s most at-risk economies, the AfCFTA could prove to be a force for economic divergence, rather than a force for good. It is therefore important that participating countries build an efficient and participatory institutional architecture to avoid leaving any economies behind.

Key words: African Union, AfCFTA, Free trade, Infrastructure, former colonisers, Francophone,

See interview here or https://www.academia.edu/38770633/Potential_Benefit_and_Forthcoming_Imperatives_of_the_AfCFTA_-_Interview_Transcript_RL_Vol_XIII_No_448a_MMXIX

A Year into the Third Republic - Where is Ethiopia’s Third Reich heading? RL Vol XIII No 451 MMXIX

A Year into the Third Republic

Political & Socio-Economic Transformation:

Where is Ethiopia’s Third Reich heading?

Public Lecture – Respublica Litereria - RL Vol XIII No 451 MMXIX

Costantinos Berhutesfa Costantinos, PhD

Former Chairperson of the AU Anti-Corruption Advisory Board

Professor of Public Policy & Sustainable Institutional Reforms

https://addisababa.academia.edu/CostyCostantinos

Abstract

Abiy’s speech at Davos indicated a major shift from his party’s ‘revolutionary democracy’ ideological leanings. While the Ethiopian economy is growing remarkably, a shift in macroeconomic policy can decisively contribute to high growth rates and new margins of manoeuvre for sectoral and structural policies. The glittery feature of such percentile growth is that the contribution of real cost reduction recorded is higher than in any of the well-performing emerging markets. A state model that accords primacy to macroeconomic stability notwithstanding; Ethiopia’s growth potential is yet to be mobilised. Structural transformation will in effect involve unchaining self-reinforcing policy trajectories and a coordinated change in the composition and level of public and private sector investments. While significant growth achievements have been recorded, it faces predictable armour of trials rife in poor nations with too few mechanism and wherewithal, while also wrestling with the perennial problem of sequencing policy reforms, all subject to doctrinal reins. Given the very slim boundaries for manoeuvre imposed by ideology and a complex interlace in its political fabric, getting the priorities right are the central issues to be addressed (Costantinos, 2019). Ethiopia’s five peace and security pillars have been under stress. These are a collective social psychology of uninterrupted statehood and martial potency; a consensus-based federalism of cultures; economic delivery that brought popular legitimacy; support from the international community and lastly, the threat posed by hostile forces (Maru, 2019).

April 2018 – April 2019 was an eventful yea for Ethiopia. PM Abiy has thrown a blowlamp into the heart of Horn of Africa and Ethiopian society and polity, nerve-wracking the terms of engagement of martial titans and thrown the centre of gravity of the Red Sea arena of war into unprecedented peace trajectory. The way he deconstructed the power monsters of the Horn region is purely ontological. This strategy of conjectural rise of political liberalisation in a rough neighbourhood of the Horn is going to be a seminal lesson in international relations and in political science. To reduce this action to some power mongering aim on behalf of the PM as constructed by the supermen of the Horn is too simplistic. There was a sense of aggravation among the citizens of the Horn that have not seen peace in decades and he seems to be tending to this vexation with gales that are fuelling the inferno of political transformation. There are costs to be paid but as is usual with such change, it enters politics and society in relatively abstract and plain form, yet pundits expect it to land itself to the immediate and vital local polity's socio-political experience. It suggests itself, and seems within reach, only to elude and appears readily practicable only to resist realisation.

Keywords: Ethiopia, ‘revolutionary democracy’, Abiy, credit & capital markets, liberalisation, media, civil society

See paper here or https://www.academia.edu/38727495/A_Year_into_the_Third_Republic_Political_and_Socio-Economic_Transformation_Where_is_Ethiopias_Third_Reich_heading_-_RL_Vol_XIII_No_451_MMXIX

Overall, the year in the third Reich can be stated to have made phenomenal achievement on the political, policy and social dynamics of the nation in spite of the economic and social challenges emanating from the recent history of the nation and dynamics of forty years of pseudo-socialist revolution.

Theoretical Trust & Praxis for Capacity Development in Fledgling Democracies RL Vol XIII No 445 MMXIX

Centre for Human Environment

Theoretical Trust & Praxis for

Capacity Development in Fledgling

Democracies

Backgrounder prepared for the International Advisory Group on Capacity Building International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, IIDEA, 1998

Public Lecture - Respublica Litereria - RL Vol XIII No 445 MMXIX

Costantinos Berhutesfa Costantinos, PhD

Professor of Public Policy & Sustainable Institutional Reforms

https://addisababa.academia.edu/CostyCostantinos

Executive Summary

         Political transitions are initiated at three levels: state led transitions, society led transitions and combinations of state led and society led transitions. Three main strategic and processual issues are usually considered in the study and analysis of democratic transitions (Ibid). First, the presence of “objective conditions for political transition” in the socio-economic structures. Second, contingent political dynamics -- democracy is installed as a result of the conscious reform initiatives of individual leaders, elite factions and social movements. Finally, political rules and institutions, where democratisation depends upon the emergence of supportive set of political institutions. Institutions are recurrent and valued patterns of political behaviour that give shape and regularity to politics. They may be manifest as political rules (either legal or informal) or as political organisations (within the state or civil society). As the building blocks of democracy, certain combinations of political institutions must be extant or emergent if a democratic transition is to occur. Political institutions also include customary political norms and practices, as the prospects for democracy partly depend on habitual attitudes of the population at large.

             Implicitly or explicitly, the Western liberal democratic model is often taken naively as the acme of democratic governance. The target that a host of other African countries set themselves in the process of democratisation is the attainment of institutions and practices that have been the basic ingredients of the Western democratic tradition. Naïve realism within existing perspectives and projects of democratisation emphasises the immediacies of institutional and political activity to the neglect of the constitutive and regulative concepts and norms that define, structure and validate democratic institutions and practices. It attempts to establish a direct relation to social experience, largely by passing the intangible, yet no less significant, terrain of critical political thought. Its immediate turn to the practical tasks of inducing people to participate in ostensibly democratic activities such as elections, the full meaning of which is often beyond the grasp of the participants, tends to become a substitute for the making of transparent and open rules of political engagement. Hence, the capacity building targets for democracy and good governance focus on participation, communication, openness and tolerance, capacity-building targets for democracy and good governance, and administrative rules and bureaucratic consistency.

Key words: capacity building, participation, communication, openness, tolerance, democracy, governance, administrative rules and bureaucratic consistency

See paper here or https://www.academia.edu/38701965/Theoretical_Trust_and_Praxis_for_Capacity_Development_in_Fledgling_Democracies_RL_Vol_XIII_No_445_MMXIX

We have said over and over again that what this is all about is not changing a regime. It is about building democratic capacity and culture at the grassroots so that countries have the capacity, if there is a democratic opening, not to see that opening closed by another autocratic regime so that they can engage in a stable democratic transition. The whole idea that this work is about regime change, shows a failure to understand what it is all about. Our interest is in strengthening democratic capacity and culture so that people have the tools to govern themselves democratically and it’s a long-term process (Gershman, 2016:1).