‘Deep State’ Coup – Quo Vadis Sudan RL Vol XIII No 450 MMXIX

‘Deep State’ Coup – Quo Vadis Sudan

The Sudanese ‘Deep Sate’ must be tempered by a Civilian Transitional State to Build Democratic Rules & Institutions

Respublica Litereria Public Lecture - RL Vol XIII No 450 MMXIX

Costantinos Berhutesfa Costantinos, PhD

Professor of Public Policy & Sustainable Institutional Reforms

https://addisababa.academia.edu/CostyCostantinos

Abstract

An AU Technical Mission on Darfur was headed by the author to review what brought about Sudan’s conflicts. What are the impact of these conflicts and ripple effects in the Horn of Africa? What are the strategic options for enhancing human security and prospects for democratic governance and resolving ethnic conflicts? The atrocities that citisens and IDPs refer to in Darfur and elsewhere are all too evident to demand any major explanation and too terrifying and menacing to believe. On 13 Nov 2018, a report was released by the IMF on the state of consumer subsidies in Sudan to protect low-income families, was expensive, ineffective and counterproductive. The protests against al-Bashir removing subsidies sparked massive nation-wide protests. The string of protests, beginning in 2018, show no signs of tapering off and may serve as a more serious challenge to the rule of the ‘deep state’ than ever before. In highlighting the uniqueness of this round of protests, some observers have pointed to these protests’ longevity as well as a number of other factors such as apparent rifts within al-Bashir’s own political party and the unity between opposition groups against the ruling regime. The will of the Sudanese youth is unmasking a violent regime a revolution has begun.

Ironically, the demonstrations have fuelled fears that a belated Arab Spring might overtake Sudan, reminiscent of the popular uprisings eight years ago. Some argue it dawn mayhem and destruction as in Syria, Libya and Yemen. The consequences could be the “African Spring” of non-electoral regime changes might suddenly spread to other countries on the continent after surprisingly succeeding in two of its most security-prone and rigid states that many observers had previously thought would never respond to “grassroots” pressure. Sudan will continue to occupy an ultra-strategic position but it will likely continue its “balancing” act between GCC, Russia, China, and US.

To avoid the Libya, Syria and Yemen scenario, Sudan should build democratic institutions that can be explained with reference to two institutional factors political organisations and political rules. The central hypoth­esis is that the relative strength of political agencies determines the rules of the political game that are installed. Democ­ratisation requires a plural set of political organisations, which promote and protect rules of peaceful political participation and competition. The AU must act to prevent a military state in Sudan.

see paper here or  https://www.academia.edu/38792480/_Deep_State_Coup_Quo_Vadis_Sudan_RL_Vol_XIII_No_450_MMXIX