Interview transcript - Herald with Costantinos
Contemporary Socio-Economic
& Political Transition in Ethiopia & the Horn of Africa
Public Lecture – Respublica
Litereria - RL Vol XIII No 451 MMXIX
Costantinos
Berhutesfa Costantinos, PhD
Former Chairperson
of the AU Anti-Corruption Advisory Board
Summary
April 2018 – April 2019 was an
eventful year for Ethiopia. PM Abiy has thrown a blowlamp into the heart of
Horn of Africa and Ethiopian society and polity, nerve-wracking the terms of
engagement of martial titans and thrown the centre of gravity of the Red Sea
arena of war into unprecedented peace trajectory. The way he deconstructed the
power monsters of the Horn region is purely ontological. Under PM Abiy, his
ruling party has widened the political space allowing opposition and opponents
to operate. The media has seen a renaissance. The Horn of Africa is moving
towards peace and reconciliation have been started. PM Abiy’s recent speech at
Davos indicated a major shift from his party’s ideological leanings. While the
Ethiopian economy is growing remarkably, a shift in macroeconomic policy can
decisively contribute to high growth rates and new margins of manoeuvre for
policies. The glittery feature of such
percentile growth is that the contribution of real cost reduction recorded is
higher than in any of the well-performing emerging markets. A state model that accords primacy to
macroeconomic stability notwithstanding; Ethiopia’s growth potential is yet to
be mobilised. Structural transformation will in effect involve unchaining
self-reinforcing policy trajectories and a coordinated change in the
composition and level of public and private sector investments.
Historically, Ethiopia has been
the target of attack for religious and territorial gain reasons. Dervish,
Mahadists and Italian invaders have challenged Ethiopia’s Emperors. The armies
of Yohannes on the morning of 16 Nov 1875 destroyed the Egyptians. They tried
again to invade from the north, but were again defeated at the battle of Guræ
in March 1876. On 7 Dec 1895, Ethiopia gained her victory at Amba Alage,
Mequelle on 21 Jan 1986 and at Adwa on 1st of March 1896 against Italy. The
fact that the entire Ethiopian people of all nations and nationalities fought
against external invaders are great historical narratives that are vital for
good citizenship today. Such a history does not lend itself to the kind of
ethnicization and fragmentation that we witness today. The Clarion call of
Ethiopianness that PM Abiy has repeatedly asserted must be respected. If this
is not a justification to teach Ethiopian history, a clinic of human experience
and of informed citizenship, then what is? The key to building enduring
democracy is the existence of strong, viable, and assertive opposition; whose
organisations give structure to the representation of interests of a diverse
body of the populace. The hallmark of a competitive election is that it creates
uncertainty about who will hold power in its aftermath. Precisely because
multiparty elections threaten incumbents with the potential loss of their
power, they generate strong incentives for current office-holders to exploit
available resources to prevent their replacement by challengers. It proposes
itself, and seems within reach, only to evade and appears readily realistic
only to resist insight.
Keywords: Ethiopia, Political
Transition, Economic Liberlisation, Abiy Ahmed,
see interview here or https://www.academia.edu/38832322/Contemporary_Socio-Economic_and_Political_Transition_in_Ethiopia_and_the_Horn_of_Africa_RL_Vol_XIII_No_451_MMXIX
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