Quo Vadis Sudan
Political Scenarios
& Options for a Transitional Government
An Enduring Agony of
Society-led African Spring - Damping calls for a Ballot, an allegedly foreign backed
Binary Junta takes to Bullets in Sudan’s Civil Uprising
Public Lecture Respublica Litereria - RL Vol XIII No 512 MMXIX
Costantinos Berhutesfa Costantinos, PhD
Former Chairperson
of the AU Anti-Corruption Advisory Board
Professor of Public Policy
& Sustainable Institutional Reforms
Abstract
Sudanese Rapid Support Forces have killed many citizens moving against a
protest sit-in camp in Khartoum, besieging the site, witnesses and protest
leaders said. Bodies of protesters shot dead were disposed of in the Nile River
near the site of the protest sit-in, and could be seen floating. The military's
ongoing move came after a weeks-long standoff with protesters that were seeking
a speedy transition to civilian rule. Weeks
after the removal of al-Bashir, the fight for civilian rule continues as the military
refuses to hand over power, seeking to oversee a two-year transitional period. The African Union has suspended Sudan’s membership until a civilian-led
transitional government is established.
The paper
proposes three scenarios forward – a civil society led, an amalgam of civil
society and military –led transitions and, failing to do so, a UN/AU/IGAD-led
provisional administration. The strength, weaknesses, opportunities and
threats for the transition discussed in the paper are based on parameters that
in combination, will determine the relative strength or weakness of the scenarios
- institutional independence, administrative capacity,
structural complexity and social unit harmony. A civil society-led government
strength would emanate from a real
transition to develop democratic political institutions based on Sudanese
cultural and economic realities vis-à-vis Western-parachuted elections that
usually result in the military replacing the dictatorial regime in civilian
clothes. A civil society-cum-military admiration would
help to defuse the tension between the more organised military and the
democratic potential of civic institutions. An internationally-led provisional administration would, having given up on both options, deny the military that may be inclined
to maintain power at the cost of what Libya has endured and perhaps a
Yemen-modelled intervention, a scenario that has drawn big powers into the
inferno in Syria and Yemen.
The Sudanese transition was bound to have shortcomings
that stem in part from historical and structural conditions marked by colonial
and militarist traditions for a good part of its recent history. Junta rule
undermine political, economic and social stability by denting citizen’s faith
in the democratic process. Junta often use their positions to advance parochial
interest and self-aggrandisement that has resulted in a general loss of respect
for authority and the law occurs and despondency. However, other nations with
identical features, have managed to install and maintain multi-party plural
systems and hence, there is no reason to believe that pluralism is doomed.
Sudan must bury meaningless ideologies that thwart democratic order. With a
genuine and dedicated endeavour of skilled and committed political élite, a
democratic transition under one geographical entity and nationhood is paramount.
Key words:
Sudan, Sudanese Professionals Association, Transitional Military Council, Sudanese Rapid Support Force, civil society, civil society cum-military-led, UN/AU/IGAD-led
provisional administration,
See paper here or https://www.academia.edu/39432245/Quo_Vadis_Sudan_-_Political_Scenarios_and_Options_for_a_Transitional_Government_RL_Vol_XIII_No_512_MMXIX
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